University of Amsterdam, Forensic Child and Youth Care Sciences, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Utrecht University, Child and Adolescent Studies, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Trauma Violence Abuse. 2023 Oct;24(4):2863-2881. doi: 10.1177/15248380221119514. Epub 2022 Sep 5.
When youth commit serious violent or sexual offenses, this often generates a call for more severe punishments and longer detention sentences. An important question is whether (long) detention sentences are effective in decreasing recidivism among serious young offenders. To estimate recidivism rates in serious young offenders and elucidate the link between sentencing (in terms of custodial vs. non-custodial and length of imprisonment) and recidivism, three multilevel meta-analyses were conducted. With a systematic literature search, 27 studies and four datasets were traced, involving = 2,308 participants, yielding 90 effect sizes for overall recidivism, 24 for specifically violent recidivism, and 23 for the association between length of imprisonment and recidivism. The average weighted overall recidivism rate was 44.47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37.59-51.46%) over an average period of 8.68 years. The rate of violent recidivism was estimated at 30.49% (95% CI: 20.92-40.52%), over an average period of 11.45 years. Recidivism rates were higher when recidivism was defined as an arrest for any new offense rather than for a specific offense and in studies conducted in the United States versus European studies. Violent recidivism rates were higher in studies with longer follow-up periods. Based on the limited available studies, no difference in recidivism rates following custodial and non-custodial sentences were found, nor an association between length of imprisonment and recidivism. To increase rehabilitation chances for youth offenders, further research is warranted to better understand the impact of sentencing and to ascertain what is needed to make custodial and non-custodial sentences more effective.
当年轻人犯下严重的暴力或性犯罪时，这通常会引发更多严厉惩罚和更长监禁刑期的呼声。一个重要的问题是，长期监禁是否能有效降低严重青少年罪犯的累犯率。为了估计严重青少年罪犯的累犯率，并阐明量刑（即监禁与非监禁以及监禁时间）与累犯之间的关系，进行了三项多层次元分析。通过系统的文献检索，追踪到 27 项研究和四个数据集，涉及 = 2308 名参与者，得出了 90 个总体累犯率的效应量、24 个特定暴力累犯率的效应量以及 23 个监禁时间与累犯之间关系的效应量。在平均 8.68 年的时间里，总体累犯率的平均加权率为 44.47%（95%置信区间[CI]：37.59-51.46%）。暴力累犯率估计为 30.49%（95% CI：20.92-40.52%），平均随访期为 11.45 年。当累犯定义为任何新犯罪的逮捕而不是特定犯罪的逮捕时，以及在美国进行的研究与欧洲研究相比时，累犯率更高。随访时间较长的研究中，暴力累犯率更高。基于有限的可用研究，未发现监禁和非监禁判决后的累犯率存在差异，也未发现监禁时间与累犯之间存在关联。为了增加青少年罪犯的康复机会，需要进一步研究以更好地了解量刑的影响，并确定使监禁和非监禁判决更有效的方法。
