Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, United States of America.
University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2020 Mar 16;15(3):e0229835. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229835. eCollection 2020.
Quantifying the economic impacts of invasive species is an essential step in developing and prioritizing invasive species management. In particular, kudzu, Pueraria montana (Lour.) Merr. is an aggressive and non-native vine that not only causes ecological damage and reduces biodiversity, but can have multiple economic consequences such as loss of timber value and volume. Using current infestation locations in Oklahoma, southcentral USA, a Monte Carlo simulation was run to estimate the natural as well as anthropogenic spread rate of kudzu in the next five years. Simulations were supplemented with an economic impact analysis within the Impact Analysis for PLANing (IMPLAN) platform. To account for economic loss in the forest product industry, a replacement cost approach with a sensitivity analysis was conducted. Occurrence data collections revealed that current kudzu populations are already established in Oklahoma forests. The results demonstrate that by year five, total industry output could be reduced by $167.9 million, which will influence 780 jobs in the most extreme case scenario. The predicted economic loss due to kudzu expansion could act as an incentive for appropriate management practices and plans to be implemented.
量化入侵物种的经济影响是制定和优先考虑入侵物种管理计划的重要步骤。特别是，葛藤（Pueraria montana (Lour.) Merr.）是一种具有侵略性的非本地藤本植物，不仅会造成生态破坏和降低生物多样性，还可能带来多种经济后果，如木材价值和体积的损失。利用美国中南部俄克拉荷马州目前的虫害发生地点，通过蒙特卡罗模拟来估计未来五年葛藤的自然和人为扩散速度。模拟结果通过影响分析规划（IMPLAN）平台进行了经济影响分析。为了考虑森林产品行业的经济损失，采用了敏感性分析的重置成本法。发生数据收集表明，目前葛藤种群已经在俄克拉荷马州的森林中建立。结果表明，到第五年，整个行业的产出可能减少 1.679 亿美元，在最极端的情况下，这将影响 780 个工作岗位。由于葛藤扩张而导致的预期经济损失可能会激励实施适当的管理措施和计划。
