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初始瞳孔状态是预测动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血患者住院死亡率的一个强有力的指标。

Initial pupil status is a strong predictor for in-hospital mortality after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

机构信息

Department of Neurosurgery, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany.

Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, 265 Campus Drive, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2020 Mar 16;10(1):4764. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-61513-1.

Abstract

Prognosis of patients with high-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is only insufficiently displayed by current standard prognostic scores. This study aims to evaluate the role of pupil status for mortality prediction and provide improved prognostic models. Anonymized data of 477 aSAH patients admitted to our medical center from November 2010 to August 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Identification of variables independently predicting in-hospital mortality was performed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Final regression models included Hunt & Hess scale (H&H), pupil status and age or in a simplified variation only H&H and pupil status, leading to the design of novel H&H-Pupil-Age score (HHPA) and simplified H&H-Pupil score (sHHP), respectively. In an external validation cohort of 402 patients, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) of HHPA (0.841) and sHHP (0.821) were significantly higher than areas of H&H (0.794; p < 0.001) or World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) scale (0.775; p < 0.01). Accordingly, including information about pupil status improves the predictive performance of prognostic scores for in-hospital mortality in patients with aSAH. HHPA and sHHP allow simple, early and detailed prognosis assessment while predictive performance remained strong in an external validation cohort suggesting adequate generalizability and low interrater variability.

摘要

目前的标准预后评分仅能充分显示高分级动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血(aSAH)患者的预后。本研究旨在评估瞳孔状态对死亡率预测的作用,并提供改进的预后模型。回顾性分析了 2010 年 11 月至 2018 年 8 月期间我院收治的 477 例 aSAH 患者的匿名数据。采用多变量逻辑回归分析识别独立预测住院死亡率的变量。最终回归模型包括 Hunt & Hess 量表(H&H)、瞳孔状态和年龄,或简化后的 H&H 和瞳孔状态,分别设计了新的 H&H-瞳孔-年龄评分(HHPA)和简化的 H&H-瞳孔评分(sHHP)。在 402 例外部验证队列中,HHPA(0.841)和 sHHP(0.821)的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下面积(AUROC)明显高于 H&H(0.794;p<0.001)或世界神经外科学会联合会(WFNS)量表(0.775;p<0.01)。因此,纳入瞳孔状态信息可提高 aSAH 患者预后评分对住院死亡率的预测性能。HHPA 和 sHHP 可实现简单、早期和详细的预后评估,而在外部验证队列中预测性能仍然较强,表明其具有充分的通用性和较低的观察者间变异性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8200/7076009/860ad94f828a/41598_2020_61513_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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