International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, World Population Program, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (Univ. Vienna, IIASA, VID/ÖAW), Laxenburg, Austria.
International Laboratory on Demography and Human Capital, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Prospekt Vernadskogo, Moscow, Russian Federation.
PLoS One. 2020 Mar 17;15(3):e0229975. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229975. eCollection 2020.
This paper examines how older individuals living in 9 European countries evaluate their chances of survival. We use survey data for the years 2004 and 2015 to construct population-level gender-specific subjective length of life (or subjective life expectancy) in people between 60 and 90 years of age. Using a specially designed statistical approach based on survival analysis, we compare people's estimated subjective life expectancies with those actually observed. We find subjective life expectancies to be lower than actual life expectancies for both genders in 2004. In 2015 men become more realistic in the sense that their subjective life expectancy is close to what was actually observed, while women retain their subjective expectations of a shorter than actual life expectancy. These results help to better understand how people might construct diverse decisions related to their remaining life course.
本文考察了生活在 9 个欧洲国家的老年人如何评估自己的生存机会。我们使用 2004 年和 2015 年的调查数据，构建了 60 至 90 岁人群中基于性别的人口水平主观预期寿命（或主观预期寿命）。我们使用基于生存分析的专门设计的统计方法，将人们估计的主观预期寿命与实际观察到的寿命进行比较。我们发现，在 2004 年，两性的主观预期寿命均低于实际预期寿命。2015 年，男性的主观预期寿命更接近实际观察到的寿命，这表明他们更加现实，而女性则仍然预期自己的寿命比实际寿命短。这些结果有助于更好地理解人们如何构建与剩余生命历程相关的各种决策。
