Théorie économique, modélisation et applications (ThEMA), Université de Cergy-Pontoise, France and Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Statistiques et d'Economie Appliquée (ENSEA), 08 BP 03 Abidjan 08, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
Pharmaceutical Outcomes & Policy (POP), College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, HPNP 3317, 1225 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.
BMC Public Health. 2020 Jun 15;20(1):932. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-09034-4.
The purpose of this study was to estimate individuals' expected longevity based on self-assessed survival probabilities and determine the predictors of such subjective life expectancy in a sample of elderly people (50 years and older) in Côte d'Ivoire.
Paper-based questionnaires were administered to a sample (n = 267) of older adults residing in the city of Dabou, Côte d'Ivoire in May 2017. Information on subjective expectations regarding health, comorbidities, and self-assessed survival probabilities was collected. We estimated self-assessed life expectancy and its determinants using a two-pronged approach by: (i) estimating individuals' life expectancy using the self-assessed survival probabilities (SSPs), and (ii) applying a finite mixture of regression models to form homogenous groups of individuals (clusters/components) and investigate the determinants. A spline-based approach was used to estimate the overall distribution of life expectancy for each individual using two to four points of self-assessed survival probabilities. A finite mixture of regression models was used to identify homogeneous groups of individuals (i.e. clusters/components) of the overall subjective life expectancy distribution of the study participants.
The mean subjective life expectancy in older people varied according to four components/clusters. The average subjective life expectancy among the elderly was 79.51, 78.89, 80.02, and 77.79 years in the first, second, third, and fourth component of the subjects' overall subjective life expectancy, respectively. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and lifestyle on subjective life expectancy varied across components. For instance, a U-shape relationship between household per capita income and subjective life expectancy was found for individuals classified into the third component, and an inverse U-shape relationship was found for individuals classified into the fourth component.
We extended the estimation of subjective life expectancy by accounting for heterogeneity in the distribution of the estimated subjective life expectancy. This approach improved the usual methods for estimating individual subjective life expectancies and may provide insight into the elderly's perception of aging, which could be used to forecast the demand for health services and long-term care needs.
本研究旨在根据自我评估的生存概率估算个体的预期寿命，并确定科特迪瓦老年人样本中这种主观预期寿命的预测因素。
2017 年 5 月，在科特迪瓦达布市对一组（n=267）老年人进行了基于纸质问卷的调查。收集了关于健康、合并症和自我评估生存概率的主观预期信息。我们使用两方面的方法来估计自我评估的预期寿命及其决定因素：（i）使用自我评估的生存概率（SSP）估计个体的预期寿命，（ii）应用回归模型的有限混合来形成同质个体群体（集群/组件）并研究决定因素。使用样条基于的方法，使用自我评估的生存概率的两个至四个点来估计每个个体的总预期寿命分布。使用有限混合回归模型来识别研究参与者的总体主观预期寿命分布的同质个体群体（即集群/组件）。
老年人的平均主观预期寿命根据四个组件/集群而有所不同。老年人的平均主观预期寿命在研究对象的总体主观预期寿命的第一、第二、第三和第四个组件中分别为 79.51、78.89、80.02 和 77.79 岁。社会人口特征、合并症和生活方式对主观预期寿命的影响在组件之间有所不同。例如，在第三组件中，家庭人均收入与主观预期寿命之间存在 U 形关系，而在第四组件中，存在反向 U 形关系。
我们通过考虑估计的主观预期寿命分布的异质性来扩展主观预期寿命的估计。这种方法改进了估计个体主观预期寿命的常用方法，并可能为老年人对衰老的认知提供见解，这可以用于预测卫生服务需求和长期护理需求。
