Najafi Behzad, Mahboub-Ahari Alireza, Nouraei Motlagh Soraya, Otobideh Seyed Alireza, Rahimi Bahlol, Shabaninejad Hosein, Yusefzadeh Hasan
Department of Health Economics, School of Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
Department of Public Health, School of Health and Nutrition, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences,Khorramabad, Iran.
Iran J Pharm Res. 2019 Fall;18(4):2226-2232. doi: 10.22037/ijpr.2019.1100841.
The importance of drug as a valuable export product in the global economy becomes clearer every day. Understanding the problems of exports and factors affecting it, can be an important step to keep Iran's position in the world markets and further export development of this product. In this study, Iranian pharmaceutical exports' supply and demand functions were calculated using co-integration and error correction techniques through time series quarterly data of 2000-2014 in order to identify the factors affecting pharmaceutical exports (short run and long run relationships among the variables) and price and income elasticities. The long run price elasticity of demand of -2.28 indicates that an increase in Iran's export price relative to competitor's export price will have a negative impact on pharmaceutical export volume. Also, the long run income elasticity of foreign demand for pharmaceutical exports of Iran is 1.11. That is an increase in income of foreign countries will have a positive impact on Iran's pharmaceutical export. On the other hand, the long run price elasticity of export supply is 1.09, indicating that the supply of pharmaceutical export is sensitive to the relative price changes. In other words, an increase in export price relative to domestic price as well as an expansion of the pharmaceutical production capacity will increase its export supply. Being aware of the factors affecting the pharmaceutical exports can prepare the ground to develop the pharmaceutical industry and balance the supply and demand in the long run. Therefore, the results of this study can help Iran's policymakers and managers to choose a clearer path for the pharmaceutical trade policies.
药品作为一种有价值的出口产品在全球经济中的重要性日益凸显。了解出口问题及其影响因素，对于维护伊朗在世界市场的地位以及进一步推动该产品的出口发展而言，可能是重要的一步。在本研究中，利用2000 - 2014年的季度时间序列数据，通过协整和误差修正技术计算了伊朗药品出口的供给和需求函数，以确定影响药品出口的因素（变量之间的短期和长期关系）以及价格和收入弹性。需求的长期价格弹性为 - 2.28，这表明伊朗出口价格相对于竞争对手出口价格的上涨将对药品出口量产生负面影响。此外，伊朗药品出口的国外需求长期收入弹性为1.11。也就是说，外国收入的增加将对伊朗药品出口产生积极影响。另一方面，出口供给的长期价格弹性为1.09，这表明药品出口供给对相对价格变化敏感。换句话说，出口价格相对于国内价格的上涨以及药品生产能力的扩大将增加其出口供给。了解影响药品出口的因素有助于为长期发展制药行业和平衡供需创造条件。因此，本研究结果可帮助伊朗政策制定者和管理者为药品贸易政策选择更清晰的路径。
