Huang Yaoxian, Unger Nadine, Harper Kandice, Heyes Chris
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Wayne State University Detroit MI USA.
College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK.
Geohealth. 2020 Mar 11;4(3):e2019GH000240. doi: 10.1029/2019GH000240. eCollection 2020 Mar.
The global gasoline and diesel fuel vehicle fleets impose substantial impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. Here we quantify the global radiative forcing and human health impacts of the global gasoline and diesel sectors using the NCAR CESM global chemistry-climate model for year 2015 emissions from the IIASA GAINS inventory. Net global radiative effects of short-lived climate forcers (including aerosols, ozone, and methane) from the gasoline and diesel sectors are +13.6 and +9.4 mW m, respectively. The annual mean net aerosol contributions to the net radiative effects of gasoline and diesel are -9.6 ± 2.0 and +8.8 ± 5.8 mW m. Aerosol indirect effects for the gasoline and diesel road vehicle sectors are -16.6 ± 2.1 and -40.6 ± 4.0 mW m. The fractional contributions of short-lived climate forcers to the total global climate impact including carbon dioxide on the 20-year time scale are similar, 14.9% and 14.4% for gasoline and diesel, respectively. Global annual total PM- and ozone-induced premature deaths for gasoline and diesel sectors approach 115,000 (95% CI: 69,000-153,600) and 122,100 (95% CI: 78,500-157,500), with corresponding years of life lost of 2.10 (95% CI: 1.23-2.66) and 2.21 (95% CI: 1.47-2.85) million years. Substantial regional variability of premature death rates is found for the diesel sector when the regional health effects are normalized by the annual total regional vehicle distance traveled. Regional premature death rates for the gasoline and diesel sectors, respectively, vary by a factor of eight and two orders of magnitude, with India showing the highest for both gasoline and diesel sectors.
全球汽油和柴油车辆群体对空气质量、人类健康和气候变化产生了重大影响。在此，我们使用美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的社区地球系统模型（CESM）全球化学-气候模型，针对国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）全球大气污染物排放数据库（GAINS）清单中2015年的排放情况，对全球汽油和柴油行业的全球辐射强迫和人类健康影响进行了量化。汽油和柴油行业的短期气候强迫因子（包括气溶胶、臭氧和甲烷）的全球净辐射效应分别为+13.6和+9.4毫瓦/平方米。汽油和柴油的净辐射效应中气溶胶的年平均净贡献分别为-9.6±2.0和+8.8±5.8毫瓦/平方米。汽油和柴油道路车辆行业的气溶胶间接效应分别为-16.6±2.1和-40.6±4.0毫瓦/平方米。在20年时间尺度上，短期气候强迫因子对包括二氧化碳在内的全球总气候影响的贡献率相似，汽油和柴油分别为14.9%和14.4%。全球汽油和柴油行业每年因细颗粒物（PM）和臭氧导致的过早死亡人数分别接近115,000人（95%置信区间：69,000 - 153,600）和122,100人（95%置信区间：78,500 - 157,500），相应的生命损失年数分别为210万（95%置信区间：123万 - 266万）和221万（95%置信区间：147万 - 285万）。当按年度区域车辆行驶总里程对区域健康影响进行归一化处理时，发现柴油行业过早死亡率存在显著的区域差异。汽油和柴油行业的区域过早死亡率分别相差8倍和两个数量级，印度在汽油和柴油行业中均显示出最高的过早死亡率。
