University of North Carolina at Greensboro , Greensboro, North Carolina 27412, United States.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2016 Feb 2;50(3):1111-7. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b05190. Epub 2016 Jan 14.
We estimate the damages and expected deaths in the United States due to excess emissions of NOx from 2009 to 2015 Volkswagen diesel vehicles. Using data on vehicle registrations and a model of pollution transport and valuation, we estimate excess damages of $430 million and 46 excess expected deaths. Accounting for uncertainty about emissions gives a range for damages from $350 million to $500 million, and a range for excess expected deaths from 40 to 52. Our estimates incorporate significant local heterogeneity: for example, Minneapolis has the highest damages despite having fewer noncompliant vehicles than 13 other cities. Our estimated damages greatly exceed possible benefits from reduced CO2 emissions due to increased fuel economy.
我们估计了 2009 年至 2015 年大众柴油车过量排放氮氧化物对美国造成的损害和预期死亡人数。我们利用车辆注册数据和污染传输及估值模型，估计超额损害为 4.3 亿美元，超额死亡人数为 46 人。考虑到排放不确定性，损害范围在 3.5 亿至 5 亿美元之间，超额死亡人数范围在 40 至 52 人之间。我们的估计考虑了显著的地方异质性：例如，尽管明尼阿波利斯的违规车辆比其他 13 个城市少，但它的损失最高。我们估计的损失大大超过了因提高燃油效率而减少二氧化碳排放可能带来的好处。
