Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
BMJ Glob Health. 2020 Mar 8;5(3):e001875. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001875. eCollection 2020.
INTRODUCTION: Herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection can cause painful, recurrent genital ulcer disease (GUD), which can have a substantial impact on sexual and reproductive health. HSV-related GUD is most often due to HSV type 2 (HSV-2), but may also be due to genital HSV type 1 (HSV-1), which has less frequent recurrent episodes than HSV-2. The global burden of GUD has never been quantified. Here we present the first global and regional estimates of GUD due to HSV-1 and HSV-2 among women and men aged 15-49 years old. METHODS: We developed a natural history model reflecting the clinical course of GUD following HSV-2 and genital HSV-1 infection, informed by a literature search for data on model parameters. We considered both diagnosed and undiagnosed symptomatic infection. This model was then applied to existing infection estimates and population sizes for 2016. A sensitivity analysis was carried out varying the assumptions made. RESULTS: We estimated that 187 million people aged 15-49 years had at least one episode of HSV-related GUD globally in 2016: 5.0% of the world's population. Of these, 178 million (95% of those with HSV-related GUD) had HSV-2 compared with 9 million (5%) with HSV-1. GUD burden was highest in Africa, and approximately double in women compared with men. Altogether there were an estimated 8 billion person-days spent with HSV-related GUD globally in 2016, with 99% of days due to HSV-2. Taking into account parameter uncertainty, the percentage with at least one episode of HSV-related GUD ranged from 3.2% to 7.9% (120-296 million). However, the estimates were sensitive to the model assumptions. CONCLUSION: Our study represents a first attempt to quantify the global burden of HSV-related GUD, which is large. New interventions such as HSV vaccines, antivirals or microbicides have the potential to improve the quality of life of millions of people worldwide.
简介:单纯疱疹病毒(HSV)感染可导致疼痛、反复发作的生殖器溃疡病(GUD),这会对性健康和生殖健康产生重大影响。HSV 相关的 GUD 最常见的原因是 HSV 型 2(HSV-2),但也可能是由生殖器 HSV 型 1(HSV-1)引起的,HSV-1 的复发频率比 HSV-2 低。全球 GUD 的负担从未被量化过。在这里,我们首次报告了全球和区域范围内 15-49 岁女性和男性中由 HSV-1 和 HSV-2 引起的 GUD 估计数。
方法:我们开发了一个自然史模型,反映了 HSV-2 和生殖器 HSV-1 感染后 GUD 的临床过程,该模型是基于对模型参数数据的文献检索而建立的。我们考虑了诊断和未诊断的症状性感染。然后,我们将该模型应用于 2016 年现有的感染估计数和人口规模。进行了敏感性分析,以改变假设。
结果:我们估计,2016 年全球有 1.87 亿 15-49 岁的人至少有一次 HSV 相关的 GUD 发作:占世界人口的 5.0%。其中,1.78 亿(95%的 HSV 相关 GUD 患者)为 HSV-2,900 万(5%)为 HSV-1。非洲的 GUD 负担最高,女性大约是男性的两倍。2016 年,全球因 HSV 相关 GUD 而损失的人天数估计为 80 亿人天,其中 99%是由 HSV-2 引起的。考虑到参数的不确定性,至少有一次 HSV 相关 GUD 发作的比例范围为 3.2%至 7.9%(1.2 亿至 2.96 亿)。然而,这些估计数对模型假设很敏感。
结论:我们的研究首次尝试量化全球 HSV 相关 GUD 的负担,其规模很大。HSV 疫苗、抗病毒药物或杀菌剂等新干预措施有可能改善全球数百万人的生活质量。
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