Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Grove, Bristol BS8 2BN, England.
Weill Cornell Medical College, Doha, Qatar.
Bull World Health Organ. 2020 May 1;98(5):315-329. doi: 10.2471/BLT.19.237149. Epub 2020 Mar 25.
OBJECTIVE: To generate global and regional estimates for the prevalence and incidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 1 and type 2 infection for 2016. METHODS: To obtain data, we undertook a systematic review to identify studies up to August 2018. Adjustments were made to account for HSV test sensitivity and specificity. For each World Health Organization (WHO) region, we applied a constant incidence model to pooled prevalence by age and sex to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HSV types 1 and 2 infections. For HSV type 1, we apportioned infection by anatomical site using pooled estimates of the proportions that were oral and genital. FINDINGS: In 2016, an estimated 491.5 million people (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 430.4 million-610.6 million) were living with HSV type 2 infection, equivalent to 13.2% of the world's population aged 15-49 years. An estimated 3752.0 million people (95% UI: 3555.5 million-3854.6 million) had HSV type 1 infection at any site, equivalent to a global prevalence of 66.6% in 0-49-year-olds. Differing patterns were observed by age, sex and geographical region, with HSV type 2 prevalence being highest among women and in the WHO African Region. CONCLUSION: An estimated half a billion people had genital infection with HSV type 2 or type 1, and several billion had oral HSV type 1 infection. Millions of people may also be at higher risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), particularly women in the WHO African Region who have the highest HSV type 2 prevalence and exposure to HIV.
目的:针对 2016 年单纯疱疹病毒(HSV)1 型和 2 型感染的流行率和发病率,生成全球和区域估计值。
方法:为了获取数据,我们进行了系统综述,以确定截至 2018 年 8 月的研究。对 HSV 检测的敏感性和特异性进行了调整。对于每个世界卫生组织(WHO)区域,我们应用恒发率模型,按年龄和性别对 pooled prevalence 进行分层,以估计 HSV 1 型和 2 型感染的流行率和发病率。对于 HSV 1 型,我们通过使用口腔和生殖器部位感染比例的 pooled 估计值,对解剖部位感染进行了分配。
发现:2016 年,估计有 4.915 亿人(95%不确定区间,UI:4.304 亿至 6.106 亿)患有 HSV 2 型感染,占 15-49 岁世界人口的 13.2%。估计有 37.52 亿人(95% UI:35.55 亿至 38.54 亿)在任何部位感染了 HSV 1 型,相当于 0-49 岁人群全球流行率为 66.6%。按年龄、性别和地理区域观察到不同的模式,HSV 2 型流行率在女性和 WHO 非洲区域最高。
结论:估计有 5 亿人患有生殖器 HSV 2 型或 1 型感染,数十亿人患有口腔 HSV 1 型感染。许多人可能面临更高的获得人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)的风险,特别是在 WHO 非洲区域,那里 HSV 2 型流行率最高,且接触 HIV 的机会也最高。
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