Department of Public Health & Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Global LPG Partnership (GLPGP), New York, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 2020 Apr;128(4):47001. doi: 10.1289/EHP4899. Epub 2020 Apr 1.
The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target.
This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking.
We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: ) short-term (2017-2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and ) long-term (2031-2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends.
By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 (, ) deaths and 770,000 ( ) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of to based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass.
Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899.
喀麦隆政府设定了一个目标，到 2030 年，将有 58%的人口使用液化石油气（LPG）作为烹饪燃料，而 2014 年这一比例不到 20%。国家 LPG 总体计划（总体计划）是为了扩大 LPG 部门以实现这一目标而制定的。
本研究旨在估算计划中的 LPG 扩张（总体计划）对人口健康和气候变化缓解的潜在影响，假设主要、持续使用 LPG 进行日常烹饪。
我们应用现有的和新开发的数学模型来计算在喀麦隆扩大 LPG 主要采用家庭烹饪的短期（2017-2030 年）和长期（2031-2100 年，仅气候建模）对人口健康和气候变化缓解的影响。短期：与 2030 年 32%的反事实 LPG 采用率相比，实现总体计划 58%的目标；长期：假设到 2100 年，喀麦隆将成为一个成熟和饱和的 LPG 市场（基于拉丁美洲国家，73%的采用率）。我们将这一情况与 2100 年 41%的反事实情况进行了比较。
到 2030 年，成功实施总体计划估计将避免约 28000（95%置信区间，）人死亡和 770000（95%置信区间，）残疾调整生命年。同期，与反事实相比，污染物排放量减少了三分之一以上，导致 2030 年全球冷却 。对于 2100 年，总体计划导致市场饱和（73%）的冷却影响估计为 ，与反事实相比，基于可再生生物量的不同分数，范围为 至 。
总体计划的成功实施可能对喀麦隆人口健康产生重大积极影响，对气候没有不利影响。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899.
