van Kleef J J, van den Boorn H G, Verhoeven R H A, Vanschoenbeek K, Abu-Hanna A, Zwinderman A H, Sprangers M A G, van Oijen M G H, De Schutter H, van Laarhoven H W M
Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Department of Medical Oncology, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Research & Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), 3511 DT Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Cancers (Basel). 2020 Mar 31;12(4):834. doi: 10.3390/cancers12040834.
The SOURCE prediction model predicts individualised survival conditional on various treatments for patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to validate SOURCE in an external cohort from the Belgian Cancer Registry. Data of Belgian patients diagnosed with metastatic disease between 2004 and 2014 were extracted ( = 4097). Model calibration and discrimination (c-indices) were determined. A total of 2514 patients with oesophageal cancer and 1583 patients with gastric cancer with a median survival of 7.7 and 5.4 months, respectively, were included. The oesophageal cancer model showed poor calibration (intercept: 0.30, slope: 0.42) with an absolute mean prediction error of 14.6%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was -2.6%. The concordance index (c-index) of the oesophageal model was 0.64. The gastric cancer model showed good calibration (intercept: 0.02, slope: 0.91) with an absolute mean prediction error of 2.5%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was 2.0%. The c-index of the gastric cancer model was 0.66. The SOURCE gastric cancer model was well calibrated and had a similar performance in the Belgian cohort compared with the Dutch internal validation. However, the oesophageal cancer model had not. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating the performance of prediction models in other populations.
SOURCE预测模型可预测转移性食管癌或胃癌患者在接受各种治疗后的个性化生存情况。本研究的目的是在比利时癌症登记处的外部队列中验证SOURCE模型。提取了2004年至2014年间被诊断为转移性疾病的比利时患者的数据（n = 4097）。确定了模型校准和区分度（c指数）。共纳入2514例食管癌患者和1583例胃癌患者，中位生存期分别为7.7个月和5.4个月。食管癌模型校准效果较差（截距：0.30，斜率：0.42），绝对平均预测误差为14.6%。预测生存与观察生存之间的平均差异为-2.6%。食管癌模型的一致性指数（c指数）为0.64。胃癌模型校准良好（截距：0.02，斜率：0.91），绝对平均预测误差为2.5%。预测生存与观察生存之间的平均差异为2.0%。胃癌模型的c指数为0.66。SOURCE胃癌模型校准良好，在比利时队列中的表现与荷兰内部验证相似。然而，食管癌模型并非如此。我们的研究结果强调了在其他人群中评估预测模型性能的重要性。
Zotero 插件
