Witten M
Computational Biology and Medicine, Control Data Corporation, Minneapolis, MN 55440.
Mech Ageing Dev. 1988 Dec;46(1-3):175-200. doi: 10.1016/0047-6374(88)90124-8.
In this paper, I attempt to address the problem of how to model the survival curve in the later lifespan years; the geriatric years. I present a new general model for a three group population in which the first group represents early life failure (neonatal failure), the second group represents the classical "Gompertzian failure", and the third group represents the later life failure or geriatric failure. Theoretical results are compared to the known biological data. It is demonstrated that this three group model embeds, within itself, a greater variety of the known biological survival dynamics. In particular, this new model resolves some of these issues concerning the failure of the pure Gompertzian to model the later life (geriatric) survival distribution.
在本文中,我试图解决如何对晚年(老年期)的生存曲线进行建模的问题。我提出了一个针对三组人群的新通用模型,其中第一组代表生命早期失败(新生儿期失败),第二组代表经典的“冈珀茨式失败”,第三组代表晚年失败或老年期失败。将理论结果与已知的生物学数据进行了比较。结果表明,这个三组模型自身包含了更多种类的已知生物生存动态。特别是,这个新模型解决了一些关于纯冈珀茨模型无法对晚年(老年期)生存分布进行建模的问题。