Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's A1B 3X5, NL, Canada.
Safety and Security Sciences Section, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, the Netherlands.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2021 May;166:112164. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112164. Epub 2021 Feb 26.
This paper investigates the linkage between the acute impacts on apex marine mammals with polar cod responses to an oil spill. It proposes a Bayesian network-based model to link these direct and indirect effects on the apex marine mammals. The model predicts a recruitment collapse (for the scenarios considered), causing a higher risk of mortality of polar bears, beluga whales, and Narwhals in the Arctic region. Whales (adult and calves) were predicted to be at higher risk when the spill was under thick ice, while adult polar bears were at higher risk when the spill occurred on thin ice. A spill over the thick ice caused the least risk to whale and adult polar bears. The spill's timing and location have a significant impact on the animals in the Arctic region due to its unique sea ice dynamics, simple food web, and short periods of food abundance.
本研究探讨了极地鳕鱼对溢油事件的反应与海洋哺乳动物急性影响之间的联系。提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的模型，将这些直接和间接影响与海洋哺乳动物联系起来。模型预测了一次（所考虑情景中的）种群崩溃，导致北极地区的北极熊、白鲸和独角鲸的死亡率更高。当溢油发生在厚冰层下时，鲸鱼（成年和幼崽）面临更高的风险，而当溢油发生在薄冰层上时，成年北极熊面临更高的风险。在厚冰层上发生的溢油对鲸鱼和成年北极熊的风险最小。由于北极地区独特的海冰动态、简单的食物网和短暂的食物丰沛期，溢油的时间和地点对该地区的动物有重大影响。
