Health Data Research UK (HDR-UK), Data Science Building, Swansea University, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK.
National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK.
Int J Health Geogr. 2020 Apr 10;19(1):12. doi: 10.1186/s12942-020-00208-2.
Inaccurately modelled environmental exposures may have important implications for evidence-based policy targeting health promoting or hazardous facilities. Travel routes modelled using GIS generally use shortest network distances or Euclidean buffers to represent journeys with corresponding built-environment exposures calculated along these routes. These methods, however, are an unreliable proxy for calculating child built-environment exposures as child route choice is more complex than shortest network routes.
We hypothesised that a GIS model informed by characteristics of the built-environment known to influence child route choice could be developed to more accurately model exposures. Using GPS-derived walking commutes to and from school we used logistic regression models to highlight built-environment features important in child route choice (e.g. road type, traffic light count). We then recalculated walking commute routes using a weighted network to incorporate built-environment features. Multilevel regression analyses were used to validate exposure predictions to the retail food environment along the different routing methods.
Children chose routes with more traffic lights and residential roads compared to the modelled shortest network routes. Compared to standard shortest network routes, the GPS-informed weighted network enabled GIS-based walking commutes to be derived with more than three times greater accuracy (38%) for the route to school and more than 12 times greater accuracy (92%) for the route home.
This research advocates using weighted GIS networks to accurately reflect child walking journeys to school. The improved accuracy in route modelling has in turn improved estimates of children's exposures to potentially hazardous features in the environment. Further research is needed to explore if the built-environment features are important internationally. Route and corresponding exposure estimates can be scaled to the population level which will contribute to a better understanding of built-environment exposures on child health and contribute to mobility-based child health policy.
环境暴露的建模不准确可能对以促进健康或有害设施为目标的循证政策产生重要影响。使用 GIS 建模的旅行路线通常使用最短网络距离或欧几里得缓冲区来表示旅程,并沿着这些路线计算相应的建成环境暴露。然而,这些方法并不可靠,无法准确计算儿童的建成环境暴露,因为儿童的路线选择比最短网络路线更复杂。
我们假设,可以开发一种基于已知影响儿童路线选择的建成环境特征的 GIS 模型,以更准确地建模暴露。我们使用 GPS -derived 的往返学校的步行通勤数据,使用逻辑回归模型突出建成环境特征在儿童路线选择中的重要性(例如道路类型、交通信号灯数量)。然后,我们使用加权网络重新计算步行通勤路线,以纳入建成环境特征。使用多层次回归分析验证不同路由方法下零售食品环境的暴露预测。
与建模的最短网络路线相比,儿童选择了有更多交通信号灯和住宅道路的路线。与标准最短网络路线相比,GPS 启发的加权网络使 GIS 基于步行通勤的路线更准确(学校路线的准确性提高了 38%,家庭路线的准确性提高了 12 倍以上)。
这项研究主张使用加权 GIS 网络来准确反映儿童上学的步行路线。路线建模的准确性提高反过来又提高了对儿童暴露于环境中潜在危险特征的估计。需要进一步研究以探索建成环境特征在国际上是否重要。路线和相应的暴露估计可以扩展到人群水平,这将有助于更好地了解儿童健康的建成环境暴露,并为基于移动性的儿童健康政策做出贡献。