美国森林会继续成为碳汇吗？
Will U.S. Forests Continue to Be a Carbon Sink?
作者信息
Tian Xiaohui, Sohngen Brent, Baker Justin, Ohrel Sara, Fawcett Allen A
机构信息
Renmin University of China, Beijing, China.
Ohio State University, Columbus.
出版信息
Land Econ. 2018 Feb 1;94:97-113. doi: 10.3368/le.94.1.97.
Abstract
This paper develops structural dynamic methods to project future carbon fluxes in forests. These methods account for land management changes on both the intensive and extensive margins, both of which are critical components of future carbon fluxes. When implemented, the model suggests that U.S. forests remain a carbon sink through most of the coming century, sequestering 128 Tg C y. Constraining forestland to its current boundaries and constraining management to current levels reduce average sequestration by 25 to 28 Tg C y. An increase in demand leads to increased management and greater sequestration in forests. The results are robust to climate change. (JEL Q23, Q54).
摘要
本文开发了结构动力学方法来预测森林未来的碳通量。这些方法考虑了集约边际和粗放边际上的土地管理变化，这两者都是未来碳通量的关键组成部分。该模型实施后表明，在本世纪的大部分时间里，美国森林仍将是一个碳汇，每年固碳128太克。将林地限制在其当前边界，并将管理限制在当前水平，会使平均固碳量减少25至28太克/年。需求增加会导致森林管理增加和固碳量增加。研究结果对气候变化具有稳健性。（《经济文献杂志》分类号：Q23、Q54）
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本文引用的文献
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