Austin Kemen G, Favero Alice, Forsell Nicklas, Sohngen Brent L, Wade Chris M, Ohrel Sara B, Ragnauth Shaun
RTI International, Center for Applied Economics and Strategy, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, USA.
The Nature Conservancy, 320 Blackwell Street, Suite 200, Durham, NC, USA.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 11;16(1):6443. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61657-6.
Comprehensive data on costs of mitigation are needed to guide the scale and distribution of climate finance to sectors and regions where it will be most cost effective. We estimate the finance required to meet regional forest-based mitigation targets, aggregated from Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Regions accounting for 70% of global forest carbon can meet their forest-based NDCs with carbon prices below $100/tonne CO. The total investment required to meet regional targets is $20-72 billion per year by 2030. Under a global coordination scenario, in which the same level of finance is available, but mitigation takes place where it is least costly, we project twice as much mitigation in 2030 as in the upper bound NDC scenario, at the same cost. This highlights potential cost savings from increasing mitigation in regions with low-cost mitigation potential that is not reflected in current national commitments and informs the next generation of NDCs.
需要有关减缓成本的全面数据，以指导气候融资的规模和分配，使其流向最具成本效益的部门和地区。我们估算了实现区域森林减缓目标所需的资金，这些目标是根据国家自主贡献（NDC）汇总得出的。占全球森林碳量70%的地区，碳价格低于100美元/吨二氧化碳时就能实现其基于森林的国家自主贡献目标。到2030年，实现区域目标每年所需的总投资为200亿至720亿美元。在全球协调情景下，即有同等水平的资金可用，但在成本最低的地方进行减缓，我们预计2030年的减缓量将是国家自主贡献情景上限的两倍，而成本相同。这凸显了通过在低成本减缓潜力地区增加减缓量来节省潜在成本的可能性，而这在当前国家承诺中并未得到体现，同时也为下一代国家自主贡献提供了参考。
