Xu Jing, Ma Tai, Ye Yuanzi, Pan Zhipeng, Lu Donghui, Pan Faming, Peng Wanren, Sun Guoping
Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui Province 230000, China.
Department of Pathology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui Province 230000, China.
J Cancer. 2020 Mar 15;11(12):3567-3579. doi: 10.7150/jca.43518. eCollection 2020.
: Most patients with stage IV colon cancer did not have the opportunity for curative surgery, only selected patients could benefit from surgery. This study aimed to determine whether surgery on the primary tumor (SPT) should be performed in patients with stage IV colon cancer and how to select patients for SPT. : This study included 48,933 patients with stage IV colon cancer who were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 1998 and 2015. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was adopted to balance baseline differences between SPT and non-surgery groups. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves were utilized to compare the overall survival (OS). Prognostic nomograms were generated to predict survival based on pre- and post-operative risk factors. Patients were divided into low, middle, and high mortality risk subsets for OS by X-tile analyses based on scores derived from above nomograms. : Patients with SPT had a significantly longer OS than those without surgery, regardless of the metastatic sites and diagnostic years. Nomograms, according to the pre- and post-operative risk factors, showed moderate discrimination (all C-indexes above 0.7). Based on X-tile analyses, low mortality risk subset (post-operative score ≤ 22.3, preoperative score ≤ 9.7) recommended for SPT, and high mortality risk was not. : SPT led to prolonged survival in stage IV colon cancer. Our nomograms would help to select suitable patients for SPT.
大多数IV期结肠癌患者没有机会接受根治性手术,只有部分特定患者能从手术中获益。本研究旨在确定IV期结肠癌患者是否应进行原发肿瘤手术(SPT)以及如何选择适合SPT的患者。本研究纳入了1998年至2015年间在监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中识别出的48933例IV期结肠癌患者。采用倾向评分匹配(PSM)分析来平衡SPT组和非手术组之间的基线差异。利用Kaplan-Meier(K-M)曲线比较总生存期(OS)。根据术前和术后危险因素生成预后列线图以预测生存期。根据上述列线图得出的分数,通过X-tile分析将患者分为OS的低、中、高死亡风险亚组。无论转移部位和诊断年份如何,接受SPT的患者OS均显著长于未接受手术的患者。根据术前和术后危险因素得出的列线图显示出中等区分度(所有C指数均高于0.7)。基于X-tile分析,建议低死亡风险亚组(术后评分≤22.3,术前评分≤9.7)接受SPT,高死亡风险亚组则不建议。SPT可延长IV期结肠癌患者的生存期。我们的列线图将有助于选择适合SPT的患者。