Kim Junmo
Dept. of Public Admin., Konkuk University, Hwa Yang Dong 1, Gwang-Jin-Gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2015 Jul;96:121-129. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.02.012. Epub 2015 Mar 11.
Societies in the 21st century require more proactive management of risks in many areas owing to the complexities people have built into socioeconomic systems, ranging from science and technology, economics, and finance to education, entertainment, and tourism infrastructure. All these systems thrive on stability, which can easily be challenged by unexpected risks. This study compares zooanthroponosis and climate change-induced sea level rise through a cost-benefit analysis in Korea. Borrowing from other methodological approaches, this study shows that the cost-benefit estimation is consistent with the existing macroeconomic speculations, which assume potential loss of GDP due to the two risks. This paper also presents a policy alternative of creating research institutions specializing in the two risks from a cost-benefit perspective as a prerequisite for the "Creative Economy".
由于人们在社会经济系统中构建了复杂的因素，从科学技术、经济、金融到教育、娱乐和旅游基础设施等，21世纪的社会需要在许多领域更积极地管理风险。所有这些系统都依赖于稳定性，而稳定性很容易受到意外风险的挑战。本研究通过韩国的成本效益分析，比较了人畜共患病和气候变化导致的海平面上升。借鉴其他方法论方法，本研究表明，成本效益估计与现有的宏观经济推测一致，这些推测假设这两种风险会导致国内生产总值的潜在损失。本文还从成本效益的角度提出了一项政策选择，即创建专门研究这两种风险的研究机构，作为“创意经济”的先决条件。
