Jin Xin Cathy, Qu Mingya, Bao Jigang
Department of Tourism, Sport and Hotel Management, Griffith University, 4222, Australia.
School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, PR China.
Tour Manag. 2019 Oct;74:334-344. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2019.04.011. Epub 2019 Apr 24.
International tourism is highly susceptible to external political, economic and environmental crisis events. This paper consists of two studies. Study 1 uses time-series monthly data and the TRAMO/SEATS model to detect and estimate the impact of a range of political, economic and environmental crisis events on the tourist flows from China to Japan and South Korea during the period of 2005-2017. Study 2 uses in-depth interviews to investigate the factors intensifying or alleviating the negative impacts of these crisis events on tourism as well as factors contributing to post-events tourism recovery and growth. Results identify the varying levels of impacts caused by event type and other causative factors for negative impacts. The paper discusses the influence of these factors to provide references to relevant stakeholders for strategic planning, policy making and recovery and growth scheme development.
国际旅游业极易受到外部政治、经济和环境危机事件的影响。本文包含两项研究。研究1使用时间序列月度数据和TRAMO/SEATS模型，来检测和估计一系列政治、经济和环境危机事件对2005年至2017年期间从中国到日本和韩国的游客流量的影响。研究2采用深度访谈的方式，调查加剧或减轻这些危机事件对旅游业负面影响的因素，以及促进事件后旅游业复苏和增长的因素。研究结果确定了事件类型造成的不同影响水平以及其他负面影响的成因。本文讨论了这些因素的影响，为相关利益相关者进行战略规划、政策制定以及制定复苏和增长计划提供参考。
