Akbar Ahsan, Nawaz Farrukh, Hui Xie, Ullah Irfan, Akbar Minhas, Zidova Veronika, Vasudevan Asokan
International Business School, Guangzhou City University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.
Department of Recreology and Tourism, Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Kralove, Hradec Kralove, Czechia.
PLoS One. 2025 Jul 31;20(7):e0328445. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0328445. eCollection 2025.
Extant studies have predominantly focused on understanding the effects of inbound tourism on economic growth. At the same time, it ignores the key factors that promote outbound tourism in a country. Outbound tourism not only plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of the host country but also helps foster an understanding of cross-cultural similarities and differences, promoting goodwill towards the home country. It also provides an opportunity to experience the cuisine, weather, and working habits of different geographical locations. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between the Human Development Index and tourism outflows in the context of China. We use data from the period 1995-2020 to estimate the relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI) and tourism outflows. The short-run and long-run Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) results indicate that improving China's Human Development Index (HDI) has a positive impact on tourism outflows. More precisely, a 1 unit increase in the HDI index will increase tourism outflow by 5.25%. Furthermore, the results of individual HDI show that life expectancy, per capita income, and education considerably promote China's tourism outflows. Policy prescriptions are outlined regarding the spillover effects of China's human development on the tourism-led economic growth of recipient countries.
现有研究主要集中在理解入境旅游对经济增长的影响。与此同时，它忽视了促进一个国家出境旅游的关键因素。出境旅游不仅在东道国的可持续发展中发挥着关键作用，还有助于增进对跨文化异同的理解，提升对母国的好感。它还提供了体验不同地理位置的美食、天气和工作习惯的机会。因此，本研究旨在探讨在中国背景下人类发展指数与旅游流出之间的关系。我们使用1995年至2020年期间的数据来估计人类发展指数（HDI）与旅游流出之间的关系。短期和长期自回归分布滞后（ARDL）结果表明，中国人类发展指数（HDI）的提高对旅游流出有积极影响。更确切地说，HDI指数每增加1个单位，旅游流出将增加5.25%。此外，个人HDI的结果表明，预期寿命、人均收入和教育显著促进了中国的旅游流出。针对中国人类发展对受援国以旅游为主导的经济增长的溢出效应，概述了政策建议。
