School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Jun;27(18):22461-22475. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08205-5. Epub 2020 Apr 20.
Global climate change and national policies play an important role in regional ecosystem services, both of which should be fully considered when exploring their effective use and management. Bayesian belief network (BBN) is often used in complicated system modelling. Using a BBN to construct a network framework of ecosystem services under climate and policy scenarios for exploring the total suitability distribution of ecosystem services is of great significance. In this study, we develop BBN for the total suitability of water yield and carbon sequestration based on hydro-biogeochemical process. And then we predict the probabilities of the total suitability in 2050 through the BBN under multi-scenario simulations accounting for climate change, birth control and carbon tax policies. Finally, total suitability priority regions are mapped, which are synergy development, water yield suitability, carbon sequestration suitability and non-suitability, respectively. Our results indicate forest, cropland, urban area, and grassland have the largest areas under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The abolition of the one-child policy has led to a significant expansion of urban areas, and the implementation of the carbon tax policy has greatly increased forest areas. Additionally, temperature, Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation and land use are the key driving factors that influence suitability. The suitable priority regions of different alternatives help policy makers consider ecological protection priorities while addressing management options.
全球气候变化和国家政策对区域生态系统服务具有重要作用，在探索其有效利用和管理时应充分考虑这两个因素。贝叶斯信念网络（BBN）常用于复杂系统建模。使用 BBN 构建气候和政策情景下的生态系统服务总适宜性网络框架，对于探索生态系统服务的总适宜性分布具有重要意义。本研究基于水-生物地球化学过程，开发了用于产水量和碳固存总适宜性的 BBN，然后通过考虑气候变化、计划生育和碳税政策的多情景模拟，使用 BBN 预测 2050 年总适宜性的概率。最后，绘制了总适宜性优先区域图，分别为协同发展区、产水适宜区、碳固存适宜区和不适宜区。结果表明，在代表性浓度路径（RCP）2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0 和 RCP 8.5 情景下，森林、耕地、城区和草地的面积最大。取消独生子女政策导致城区面积显著扩大，而碳税政策的实施则大大增加了森林面积。此外，温度、归一化植被指数（NDVI）、降水和土地利用是影响适宜性的关键驱动因素。不同方案的适宜性优先区域有助于决策者在考虑管理方案的同时，确定生态保护的优先事项。
