Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081, HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Jul 1;265:110515. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110515. Epub 2020 Apr 10.
When cropland expansion encroaches on ecological land (e.g., forest, grassland, wetland), it seriously affects carbon storage which plays an important role in global climate change. Taking Hubei as the study area, this study explored the effects of cropland expansion on carbon storage in both 2000-2010 and 2010-2030 in different scenarios by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and the LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE). The results showed that cropland expansion led to a massive loss of carbon storage (1.76 Tg C) during 2000-2010, which is expected to continue during 2010-2030 in different scenarios. The loss is predicted to be 3.70 Tg C in the Business-As-Usual scenario and be 0.88 Tg C in the Requisition-Compensation Balance of Cropland Policy scenario. Noticeably, the loss of carbon storage due to cropland expansion was 1.12 times more than that due to urban expansion during 2000-2010. For the period of 2010-2030, the loss of carbon storage caused by cropland expansion is predicted to be 3.89 times more than that caused by urban expansion in the Business-As-Usual scenario, while the losses caused by cropland expansion and urban expansion are predicted to be almost equal in the Requisition-Compensation Balance of Cropland Policy scenario. The main cause of carbon storage loss due to cropland expansion is that it leads to the considerable loss of forest and wetland. This study highlights the importance of considering the loss of carbon storage caused by cropland expansion when conducting cropland protection policies and land use planning.
当耕地扩张侵占生态用地（如森林、草地、湿地）时，会严重影响在全球气候变化中发挥重要作用的碳储存。本研究以湖北省为研究区，利用综合生态系统服务和权衡评估（InVEST）模型和土地系统细胞自动机模型潜在效应（LANDSCAPE），在不同情景下探讨了 2000-2010 年和 2010-2030 年耕地扩张对碳储存的影响。结果表明，2000-2010 年耕地扩张导致了大量的碳储存损失（1.76TgC），在不同情景下预计将在 2010-2030 年继续。在“照常营业”情景下，预计损失为 3.70TgC，在“耕地占补平衡”政策情景下，预计损失为 0.88TgC。值得注意的是，2000-2010 年耕地扩张导致的碳储存损失是城市扩张的 1.12 倍。在 2010-2030 年期间，在“照常营业”情景下，耕地扩张导致的碳储存损失预计是城市扩张的 3.89 倍，而在“耕地占补平衡”政策情景下，耕地扩张和城市扩张导致的损失预计几乎相等。耕地扩张导致碳储存损失的主要原因是它导致森林和湿地的大量损失。本研究强调了在制定耕地保护政策和土地利用规划时，考虑耕地扩张导致的碳储存损失的重要性。
