Igissinov Nurbek, Aubakirova Alma, Orazova Galiya, Akpolatova Gulnur, Urazova Saltanat, Tarzhanova Dinar, Zhantureyeva Akmaral, Kuandykov Yerlan
Department of Surgical Diseases № 2, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.
Department of Science and Analytic, International High School of Medicine, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.
Iran J Public Health. 2020 Jan;49(1):68-76.
As a result of the road traffic accidents 1.25 mln. of working-age people die each year on the roads. Frequency of the RTA is 11 times higher in our country than in Europe, that influence on demographic and economic situation in the republic. Creation of the math modeling and prediction of traffic mortality rate in Kazakhstan will allow to develop measure on its decrease.
Short-term dotted prediction of population mortality level of Kazakhstan was used, in particular - methods of regressive analysis. General prognosis throughout the country up to 2021 was made on the basis of data for 1999-2018. The more relevant method for prediction is exponential function taking into account the features of mortality rate level trend.
Prediction of traffic fatalities without division into the age-related groups for 2019 is 2132±181 case with a probability 2/3. Expected levels for 2020-2027 cases, for 2021-1927 cases.Annual mortality decrease rate according to the 0-19 age-related at an average is 6.4% among men and 5.8% among women, according to age group as a whole - by 6.2%; from 20 up to 64 age related group - 5.1 % on all population category; older 65 age -group is by 2.2 %, 3.7 % among men, 2.9% among women as a whole.
In the foreseeable future the number of traffic deaths in Kazakhstan will tend to decrease at a slower pace. Mortality rates due to road traffic accidents among working-age men will be 3 times higher than women in this age group.
道路交通事故导致每年有125万劳动年龄人口死于道路上。我国道路交通事故发生率比欧洲高11倍，这对共和国的人口和经济状况产生影响。创建哈萨克斯坦交通死亡率的数学模型和预测将有助于制定降低死亡率的措施。
采用哈萨克斯坦人口死亡率水平的短期点状预测，特别是回归分析方法。根据1999 - 2018年的数据对全国直至2021年进行总体预测。考虑到死亡率水平趋势的特点，更合适的预测方法是指数函数。
2019年不分年龄组的交通死亡预测为2132±181例，概率为2/3。2020年预期水平为2027例，2021年为1927例。按0 - 19岁年龄组计算，男性年死亡率平均下降6.4%，女性为5.8%；按整个年龄组计算，平均下降6.2%；20至64岁年龄组在所有人口类别中下降5.1%；65岁及以上年龄组下降2.2%，总体上男性为3.7%，女性为2.9%。
在可预见的未来，哈萨克斯坦的交通死亡人数将趋于以较慢的速度下降。劳动年龄男性因道路交通事故导致的死亡率将比该年龄组女性高3倍。
