Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Traffic Management Research Institute of Ministry of Public Security, Wuxi, 214151, China.
Accid Anal Prev. 2020 Jun;141:105547. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105547. Epub 2020 Apr 22.
A penalty mechanism is usually considered as a powerful means to reduce the probability of traffic violations and accidents by encouraging drivers to comply with traffic regulations. Penalty point and fine strategies are often used in parallel. Different degrees of penalty points and/or fines are imposed according to the specific violation behavior of drivers. However, the question of whether each penalty produces positive effects in maintaining a driver's compliance with traffic regulations and promoting the driver's traffic safety is still unanswered. This study focuses on quantifying the effects of penalty point and fine strategies on violation recurrences and accident occurrences of drivers. A frailty survival analysis method is conducted to jointly model the occurrence of violation and accident events of each individual. The frailty term in the model is leveraged to address the unobserved heterogeneity among drivers. Personal characteristics and penalty status are also incorporated as covariates in the model. Actual violation and accident data from a province in China are utilized to calibrate the model. The results show that penalty point strategy exhibits deterrent and binding effects; however, penalty fine strategy does not show the expected effects. The number of years of driving is also a significant factor that influences violation recurrence and accident occurrence. The present study provides insightful information for improving violation penalty mechanisms.
惩罚机制通常被认为是通过鼓励驾驶员遵守交通规则来降低交通违法行为和事故概率的有力手段。在实践中，通常同时使用扣分和罚款策略。根据驾驶员的具体违法行为，对不同程度的扣分和/或罚款进行处罚。然而，每个处罚是否对维持驾驶员遵守交通规则和提高驾驶员交通安全产生积极影响的问题仍未得到解答。本研究重点定量分析扣分和罚款策略对驾驶员违法行为复发和事故发生的影响。采用脆弱性生存分析方法联合对每个个体的违法行为和事故事件进行建模。模型中的脆弱性项用于解决驾驶员之间未被观察到的异质性。个人特征和处罚状况也被纳入模型作为协变量。利用中国一个省份的实际违法行为和事故数据对模型进行校准。结果表明，扣分策略具有威慑和约束作用；然而，罚款策略并未显示出预期的效果。驾龄也是影响违法行为复发和事故发生的重要因素。本研究为改进违法行为处罚机制提供了有价值的信息。
