Institute of Agricultural & Resource Economics (IARE), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (UAF), Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan.
Centre for Agribusiness, UNE Business School, Faculty of Science, Agriculture, Business, and Law, University of New England, Armidale, Australia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Jul;27(20):25415-25433. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08984-x. Epub 2020 Apr 29.
Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly affect the climate at regional and global levels through different biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. However, the effects of biogeophysical aspects of LULCC on climate have been often ignored, which may overestimate the biogeochemical effects on climate change. Thus, understanding the biogeophysical influence of land use changes on climate change in future potential scenarios is crucial. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the mechanism and land use change impacts on future climate under different scenarios through changes in underlying surface and surface energy balance. In order to fill this research gap, three simulations are performed by Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model for the year 2010-2030 under Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, Rapid Economic Growth (REG) scenario, and Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CES) scenario to evaluate the influence of future LULCC on temperature projections for the Punjab province in Pakistan. Results show that land use conversions under three scenarios induce overall climate cooling in the region. The decrease in annual average temperature in CES scenario (- 0.02 °C) is slightly greater than that in BAU and REG scenarios (- 0.01 °C). The responses of temperature to future LULCC vary in different months in all scenarios, with greater responses in warmer months, causing climate cooling. In each scenario, the response of temperature is found to be sensitive to different land transitions. The findings of the study can be a reference for policy makers, researchers, and development practitioners in their pursuit to understand the effects of land use change on climate.
土地利用和土地覆被变化（LULCC）通过不同的生物物理和生物地球化学过程显著影响区域和全球气候。然而，LULCC 的生物物理方面对气候的影响经常被忽视，这可能高估了生物地球化学对气候变化的影响。因此，了解土地利用变化对未来潜在情景下气候变化的生物物理影响至关重要。因此，有必要通过下垫面和地表能量平衡的变化，识别不同情景下土地利用变化对未来气候的生物物理影响机制和影响。为了填补这一研究空白，本研究通过天气研究与预报（WRF）模型对 2010-2030 年 BAU 情景、快速经济增长（REG）情景和协调环境可持续性（CES）情景下的土地利用变化进行了三次模拟，以评估未来 LULCC 对巴基斯坦旁遮普省温度预测的影响。结果表明，三种情景下的土地利用转换导致该地区整体气候冷却。CES 情景下的年平均气温下降（-0.02°C）略高于 BAU 和 REG 情景（-0.01°C）。在所有情景中，温度对未来 LULCC 的响应在不同月份有所不同，温暖月份的响应更大，导致气候冷却。在每个情景中，温度的响应都发现对不同的土地转换敏感。本研究的结果可以为决策者、研究人员和发展实践者在理解土地利用变化对气候的影响方面提供参考。
