Development of a quantitative risk assessment of bovine viral diarrhea virus and bovine herpesvirus-1 introduction in dairy cattle herds to improve biosecurity.

A quantitative risk assessment model was developed to estimate the annual probability of introducing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) at the farm level through animal movements. Data from 2017 official animal movements, biosecurity questionnaires, scientific literature, and expert opinion from field veterinarians were taken into consideration for model input parameters. Purchasing or introducing cattle, rearing replacement heifers offsite, showing cattle at competitions, sharing transport vehicles with other herds, and transporting cattle in vehicles that have not been cleaned and disinfected were considered in the model. The annual probability of introducing BVDV or BoHV-1 through infected animals was very heterogeneous between farms. The median likelihoods of BVDV and BoHV-1introduction were 12 and 9%, respectively. Farms that purchased cattle from within their region (i.e., local movements) and shared transport with other farms had a higher probability for BVDV and BoHV-1 introduction. This model can be a useful tool to support decision-making on biosecurity measures that should be prioritized to reduce the probability of introduction of these 2 diseases in dairy herds.