Gierak Anna, Śmietanka Krzysztof
Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment, Puławy, Poland.
Department of Poultry Diseases, National Veterinary Research Institute, 24-100 Puławy, Poland.
J Vet Res. 2021 Dec 20;65(4):383-389. doi: 10.2478/jvetres-2021-0069. eCollection 2021 Dec.
Introduction of an animal viral disease, especially a notifiable disease, into an importing country or region free from the disease may lead to serious epidemiological consequences and economic losses. Trade in live animals is historically considered one of the most important risk pathways. To estimate the magnitude of such risk, the likelihood of a virus' entry into a country and the consequences of this event should be jointly evaluated. Depending on data availability, the urgency of the problem and the detail level of the objectives, a risk assessment may be conducted in a qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative way. The purpose of this review was firstly to provide a brief description of each step of the risk analysis process, with particular emphasis on the risk assessment component, and subsequently to supply examples of different approaches to the assessment of the risk of the introduction of selected animal viral diseases. Based on the reviewed models, the overall likelihood of introduction of particular diseases was generally estimated as low. The output risk value was strongly dependent on the duration of the silent phase of the epidemic in the country of origin. Other parameters with some bearing upon the risk derived from the epidemiological situation in the country of origin and the biosecurity or mitigation measures implemented in the country of destination. The investigated models are universal tools for conducting assessment of the risk of introduction of various animal diseases to any country. Their application may lead to timely implementation of appropriate measures for the prevention of the spread of a disease to another country or region.
将一种动物病毒性疾病，尤其是一种应通报的疾病引入一个无该病的进口国家或地区，可能会导致严重的流行病学后果和经济损失。活体动物贸易在历史上被认为是最重要的风险途径之一。为了估计这种风险的程度，需要联合评估病毒进入一个国家的可能性以及这一事件的后果。根据数据的可用性、问题的紧迫性和目标的详细程度，风险评估可以采用定性、半定量或定量的方式进行。本综述的目的首先是简要描述风险分析过程的每一步，特别强调风险评估部分，随后提供不同方法评估特定动物病毒性疾病引入风险的实例。基于所审查的模型，特定疾病引入的总体可能性通常估计为低。输出风险值强烈依赖于原产国疫情的潜伏期。其他一些与风险相关的参数来自原产国的流行病学情况以及目的地国实施的生物安全或缓解措施。所研究的模型是用于评估各种动物疾病引入任何国家风险的通用工具。它们的应用可能会导致及时实施适当措施，以防止疾病传播到另一个国家或地区。
