Park Hojeong
Department of Food and Resource Economics, Korea University, Anam-Dong, Seongbuk-Gu, Seoul 136-701, South Korea.
Econ Model. 2016 Feb;53:187-194. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.005. Epub 2015 Dec 29.
Vaccination is mostly used for controlling the diffusion of an infectious disease. This paper attempts to bridge a gap between economic model and epidemiological model to analyze the optimal vaccination strategy when the diffusion of pandemic disease follows a stochastic process. Impulsive vaccination is considered as an effective option to control an infectious disease. A real option model under stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) environment is developed to examine the optimal vaccination threshold when the social costs and benefits of vaccination efforts are considered. A numerical illustration is provided for the case of H1N1 in Korea to show the herd immunity level as a policy rule to suppress epidemic. Policy implications are discussed regarding the vaccine stockpile as a countermeasure to epidemic diffusion.
疫苗接种主要用于控制传染病的传播。本文试图弥合经济模型与流行病学模型之间的差距，以分析大流行病传播遵循随机过程时的最优疫苗接种策略。脉冲式疫苗接种被认为是控制传染病的一种有效选择。建立了一个随机易感-感染-易感（SIS）环境下的实物期权模型，以研究在考虑疫苗接种工作的社会成本和收益时的最优疫苗接种阈值。针对韩国甲型H1N1流感病例提供了一个数值示例，以展示作为抑制疫情的政策规则的群体免疫水平。讨论了关于疫苗储备作为应对疫情传播的对策的政策含义。
