College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Jul;27(21):26442-26462. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09022-6. Epub 2020 May 3.
The mechanism of the non-agricultural transfer of rural labor to agricultural production efficiency and their interrelationships is a problem worthy of further discussion at this stage in China. The mediating effect model is constructed, the least square method is used for regression, and the instrumental variable method is used to solve the possible endogeneity problem. Through the investigation of farmers in Loess Plateau region, this paper analyzes the effects of factor substitution and planting structure adjustment after agricultural labors work outside and its impact on agricultural land output from the theoretical and empirical aspects, as well as the impact of off-farm employment on agricultural land output under different constraints. Results showed that the negative influence of labor non-agricultural transfer on farmland land output rate is - 7.264, and farmers' participation in returning farmland to forests can alleviate the negative impact of non-agricultural transfer on the agricultural land output. Labor substitution factor investment plays a part in the mediating effect, and part of the mediating effect is - 0.879. The adjustment of agricultural planting structure plays the whole mediating effect, that is to say, the larger the scale of labor non-agricultural transfer in Loess Plateau area, the more unfavorable for farmers to invest in labor substitution agricultural factors of production, and the more they are inclined to grow food crops. When the constraint conditions of factor substitution difficulty and planting structure adjustment space are considered, the higher the factor substitution difficulty is, the smaller the planting structure adjustment space; the negative effect of the non-agricultural transfer of labor on the agricultural land output rate is more obvious. It provides effective reference value to judge the development stage and trend of regional agriculture and puts forward relevant policy suggestions to guarantee the development of regional agriculture and farmers' life.
农村劳动力向农业生产效率的非农转移机制及其相互关系是现阶段中国值得进一步讨论的问题。构建中介效应模型，采用最小二乘法进行回归，采用工具变量法解决可能存在的内生性问题。通过对黄土高原地区农民的调查，从理论和实证两个方面分析了农业劳动力外出后要素替代和种植结构调整及其对农业土地产出的影响，以及非农就业在不同约束下对农业土地产出的影响。结果表明，劳动力非农转移对耕地土地产出率的负向影响为-7.264，农民参与退耕还林可以缓解非农转移对农业土地产出的负面影响。劳动替代要素投入在中介效应中发挥了一定的作用，部分中介效应为-0.879。农业种植结构的调整发挥了全部的中介效应，即黄土高原地区劳动力非农转移规模越大，农民越不利于投入劳动替代农业生产要素，越倾向于种植粮食作物。当考虑要素替代难度和种植结构调整空间的约束条件时，要素替代难度越高，种植结构调整空间越小；劳动力非农转移对农业土地产出率的负向影响越明显。为判断区域农业的发展阶段和趋势提供了有效参考价值，并提出了保障区域农业和农民生活发展的相关政策建议。
