Chen Wei, Wang Qian, Li Qiao, Wang Yanan, Zheng Weiwei
College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, 712100, Yangling, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(9):22668-22685. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23613-5. Epub 2022 Oct 27.
With the improvement of industrialization, numerous rural laborers migrate to urban areas in search of off-farm jobs. Farmers change agricultural production decisions to adapt to the change of labor force, which will inevitably affect the crop planting structure. However, few studies have explored the sustainability of crop planting structure. Based on the calculation of the multiple cropping index (MCI), grain crops planting rate (GCR), economic crops planting rate (ECR), and ecological sustainability index (ESI) of crop planting structure, this study analyzes the impact of labor transfer rate (LTR) and labor cost (LC) on the sustainability of crop planting structure using a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. The results show that the scale of rural labor transfer and labor cost in China remains on the rise, but the growth rate has slowed down. The total carbon absorption of crops in China shows a U-shape trend, and the rice and maize have the largest carbon absorption. The impact of LTR on MCI is mainly positive, especially in the North China Plain in the early stage and some provinces in the Southwest China in the later stage. The impact of LTR on ECR and ESI is negative in most provinces. And the negative influence of LC on MCI is increasing, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of large influence in the southeast and small influence in the northwest. The impact of LC on ESI shows a negative effect in most provinces in the early stage, and the negative effect is more concentrated in some provinces in the southwest in the later stage.
随着工业化的推进，大量农村劳动力迁移到城市寻找非农工作。农民改变农业生产决策以适应劳动力的变化，这将不可避免地影响作物种植结构。然而，很少有研究探讨作物种植结构的可持续性。基于对作物种植结构的复种指数（MCI）、粮食作物种植率（GCR）、经济作物种植率（ECR）和生态可持续性指数（ESI）的计算，本研究使用地理加权回归（GTWR）模型分析劳动力转移率（LTR）和劳动力成本（LC）对作物种植结构可持续性的影响。结果表明，中国农村劳动力转移规模和劳动力成本仍在上升，但增速有所放缓。中国农作物的总碳吸收呈U形趋势，水稻和玉米的碳吸收量最大。LTR对MCI的影响主要为正向，尤其是在前期的华北平原和后期的中国西南部分省份。在大多数省份，LTR对ECR和ESI的影响为负。并且LC对MCI的负面影响在增加，呈现出东南部影响大、西北部影响小的空间分布特征。LC对ESI的影响在前期大多数省份呈现负面影响，后期负面影响更集中在中国西南部分省份。
