The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, 277-8563, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan.
Institut Louis Malardé, Laboratoire des Biotoxines Marines, UMR 241-EIO, PO box 30, 98713, Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia.
Toxicon. 2020 Jul 30;182:21-29. doi: 10.1016/j.toxicon.2020.05.001. Epub 2020 May 7.
Ciguatera poisoning (CP), arising from ciguatoxins produced by toxic dinoflagellate Gambierdiscus, is one of the most common food-borne diseases in the South Pacific. Climate change as well as its related events have been hypothesized to a higher abundance and wider presence of toxic dinoflagellates, hence a higher risk of the disease. Yet existing studies assessing the relationship between climate factors and CP are limited or based on old data. In this study, we used prewhitened cross-correlation analysis and auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) modeling to develop predictive models of monthly CP incidence in Cook Islands and French Polynesia, two ciguatera-endemic regions in the South Pacific, utilizing the latest epidemiological data. Results reveal the significant time-lagged associations between the monthly CP incidence rate and several indicators relating to sea surface temperature (SST). In particular, SST anomaly is proven to be a strong positive predictor of an increased ciguatera incidence for both countries. If these time-lags can be supported by more investigations, it will allow health authorities to take appropriate actions, to limit or avoid an epidemic risk, especially on high-risk climate scenarios.
雪卡毒素中毒（CP）是由毒性甲藻 Gambierdiscus 产生的雪卡毒素引起的最常见的食源性疾病之一，广泛存在于南太平洋地区。气候变化及其相关事件被假设为有毒甲藻丰度更高、分布更广，因此疾病风险更高。然而，现有的评估气候因素与 CP 之间关系的研究有限或基于旧数据。在这项研究中，我们使用预白化互相关分析和自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型，利用最新的流行病学数据，为南太平洋两个雪卡毒素流行地区——库克群岛和法属波利尼西亚的每月 CP 发病率开发预测模型。结果表明，每月 CP 发病率与几个与海面温度（SST）有关的指标之间存在显著的时间滞后关联。特别是，SST 异常被证明是两国雪卡毒素发病率增加的强有力的正预测因子。如果这些时滞能够得到更多的研究支持，将使卫生当局能够采取适当的行动，限制或避免流行风险，特别是在高风险的气候情景下。
