Quantifying and Describing the Natural History and Costs of Alzheimer's Disease and Effects of Hypothetical Interventions.

BACKGROUND

A long-term horizon is necessary when the socioeconomic consequences and the potential effects of interventions in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are estimated.

OBJECTIVES

To illustrate the potential societal costs of AD across the disease continuum and to illustrate the potential cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical intervention with disease modifying treatment (DMT).

METHODS

Based on the Swedish dementia registry, a Markov model was used to simulate a virtual cohort of 100,000 people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD (AD-MCI) in Sweden for 40 years starting at the age of 60. A simulated hypothetical intervention assumed a 25% reduction in progression rate during AD-MCI and mild AD-dementia. A comprehensive set of sensitivity analyses was included.

RESULTS

The cumulative risk to develop dementia was 96%. The mean simulated survival was 19.0 years. The net present value for a person year with dementia was 252,843 SEK (about 29,500 US$). The cost effectiveness model illustrated how the hypothetical scenario of a 25% reduction in progression to AD-dementia would require 41 AD-MCI patients to be treated to prevent one case of AD-dementia (2,447 avoided AD-dementia cases of 100,000 with AD-MCI). Most scenarios illustrated hypothetical cost effectiveness (based on a willingness to pay level of 600,000 SEK (70,000 US$) per gained QALY), but not cost savings.

DISCUSSION

Lifetime societal costs of AD are substantial. A future DMT may be potentially cost-effective given assumed treatment effects and costs, but cost savings are unlikely.