Heltzel Gordon, Laurin Kristin
University of British Columbia, Canada.
Curr Opin Behav Sci. 2020 Aug;34:179-184. doi: 10.1016/j.cobeha.2020.03.008. Epub 2020 May 6.
The rise of polarization over the past 25 years has many Americans worried about the state of politics. This worry is understandable: up to a point, polarization can help democracies, but when it becomes too vast, such that entire swaths of the population refuse to consider each other's views, this thwarts democratic methods for solving societal problems. Given widespread polarization in America, what lies ahead? We describe two possible futures, each based on different sets of theory and evidence. On one hand, polarization may be on a self-reinforcing upward trajectory fueled by misperception and avoidance; on the other hand it may have recently reached the apex of its pendulum swing. We conclude that it is too early to know which future we are approaching, but that our ability to address misperceptions may be one key factor.
在过去25年里，两极分化加剧，这让许多美国人对政治状况感到担忧。这种担忧是可以理解的：在一定程度上，两极分化有助于民主，但当它变得过于严重，以至于广大民众拒绝考虑彼此的观点时，这就会阻碍解决社会问题的民主方法。鉴于美国普遍存在的两极分化，未来会怎样？我们描述了两种可能的未来，每种未来都基于不同的理论和证据。一方面，两极分化可能正处于由误解和回避推动的自我强化上升轨道上；另一方面，它可能最近已达到钟摆摆动的顶点。我们的结论是，现在判断我们正走向哪种未来还为时过早，但我们应对误解的能力可能是一个关键因素。
