Machine Learning With Feature Domains Elucidates Candidate Drivers of Hospital Readmission Following Spine Surgery in a Large Single-Center Patient Cohort.

BACKGROUND

Unplanned hospital readmissions constitute a significant cost burden in healthcare. Identifying factors contributing to readmission risk presents opportunities for actionable change to reduce readmission rates.

OBJECTIVE

To combine machine learning classification and feature importance analysis to identify drivers of readmission in a large cohort of spine patients.

METHODS

Cases involving surgical procedures for degenerative spine conditions between 2008 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Of 11 150 cases, 396 patients (3.6%) experienced an unplanned hospital readmission within 30 d of discharge. Over 75 pre-discharge variables were collected and categorized into demographic, perioperative, and resource utilization feature domains. Random forest classification was used to construct predictive models for readmission from feature domains. An ensemble tree-specific method was used to quantify and rank features by relative importance.

RESULTS

In the demographics domain, age and comorbidity burden were the most important features for readmission prediction. Surgical duration and intraoperative oral morphine equivalents were the most important perioperative features, whereas total direct cost and length of stay were most important in the resource utilization domain. In supervised learning experiments for predicting readmission, the demographic domain model performed the best alone, suggesting that demographic features may contribute more to readmission risk than perioperative variables following spine surgery. A predictive model, created using only enriched features showing substantial importance, demonstrated improved predictive capacity compared to previous models, and approached the performance of state-of-the-art, deep-learning models for readmission.

CONCLUSION

This strategy provides insight into global patterns of feature importance and better understanding of drivers of readmissions following spine surgery.