Departamento de Biodiversidade, Evolução e Meio Ambiente, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, Brasil.
Department of Biology, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada.
J Econ Entomol. 2020 Aug 13;113(4):1702-1710. doi: 10.1093/jee/toaa089.
Nysius simulans (Stål) is a suctorial, fluid feeding herbivore that can transmit toxins and spread pathogens via saliva and is an economically important pest for soybean in South America. Currently, N. simulans in soybean is predominantly found in Argentina, but future changes in the distribution from both dispersal and range shifts due to climate change may affect soybean cultivation in southern South America. We developed a species distribution model to examine the distribution range of N. simulans. We compared the potential distribution of N. simulans under current and future projected climatic conditions in order to identify future areas of natural occurrence with ecological niche models using Maxent. Current records of N. simulans show that while the species is present in Argentina, and some areas of Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay, our models suggest that many new suitable areas will be available for N. simulans under climate change including other regions of Argentina, and southern Chile. Our results also predict potential future range shifts and distributions into Bolivia, but not Peru nor Brazil. In our model, seasonal trends in temperature were shown to have the greatest contribution to the potential distribution, whereas isothermality (i.e., temperature variability) was correlated to potential future distribution ranges. We conclude that current populations of N. simulans may be expanding its distribution range by diffusion (i.e., range expansion over generations at the margins of populations), and regions with potential future N. simulans distribution should be closely monitored.
拟食虫虻（Nysius simulans）（Stål）是一种吸食液体的食草动物，它可以通过唾液传播毒素和病原体，是南美洲大豆的一种重要经济害虫。目前，大豆上的拟食虫虻主要分布在阿根廷，但由于气候变化导致的扩散和范围转移，未来其分布可能会发生变化，从而影响到南美洲南部的大豆种植。我们开发了一个物种分布模型来研究拟食虫虻的分布范围。我们比较了拟食虫虻在当前和未来预测气候条件下的潜在分布范围，以确定未来具有生态位模型的自然发生区域，使用 Maxent。目前对拟食虫虻的记录表明，虽然该物种存在于阿根廷，以及巴西、巴拉圭、秘鲁和乌拉圭的一些地区，但我们的模型表明，在气候变化下，许多新的适宜地区将可供拟食虫虻使用，包括阿根廷的其他地区和智利南部。我们的结果还预测了未来潜在的分布范围转移和进入玻利维亚的分布，但不包括秘鲁和巴西。在我们的模型中，温度的季节性趋势对潜在分布的贡献最大，而等温性（即温度变异性）与潜在未来分布范围相关。我们得出结论，目前拟食虫虻的种群可能通过扩散（即种群边缘几代的范围扩展）来扩大其分布范围，应该密切监测具有潜在未来拟食虫虻分布的区域。
