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气候变化下(林奈,1758年)物种分布范围的建模与预测

Modeling and Prediction of the Species' Range of (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change.

作者信息

Liao Jian, Wang Haojie, Xiao Shaojun, Guan Zhaoying, Zhang Haomiao, Dumont Henri J, Han Bo-Ping

机构信息

Department of Ecology, Institute of Hydrobiology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.

Guangdong Lianshan Bijiashan Provincial Nature Reserve Administration Bureau, Qingyuan 513200, China.

出版信息

Biology (Basel). 2022 Jun 6;11(6):868. doi: 10.3390/biology11060868.

DOI:10.3390/biology11060868
PMID:35741389
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9220025/
Abstract

is widely distributed in eastern tropical Asia. Its only congener in China, the , has not been observed for decades. To protect , it is necessary to understand the ecological properties of its habitats and specie's range shift under climate change. In the present study, we modeled its potential distribution under one historical, current, and four future scenarios. We evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution and habitats and predicted the historical and current core spatial distributions and their shifting in the future. Two historical core distribution areas were identified: the inland region of the Bay of Bengal and south-central Vietnam. The current potential distribution includes south China, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Luzon of Philippines, Malaysia, southwest and northeast India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia (Java, Sumatera), Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and foothills of the Himalayas, in total, ca. 3.59 × 10 km. Only one core distribution remained, concentrated in south-central Vietnam. In a warming future, the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole range of will expand and shift northwards. Currently, mainly resides in forest ecosystems below 1200 m above sea level (preferred 500 m to 1200 m a.s.l.). Annual precipitation, mean temperature of driest quarter, and seasonality of precipitation are important factors shaping the species distribution. Our study provides systematic information on habitats and geographical distribution, which is useful for the conservation of .

摘要

广泛分布于东亚热带地区。其在中国唯一的同属物种,几十年来一直未被观测到。为了保护该物种,有必要了解其栖息地的生态特性以及气候变化下物种的范围变化。在本研究中,我们模拟了其在一个历史、当前和四个未来情景下的潜在分布。我们评估了影响其分布和栖息地的因素的重要性,并预测了历史和当前的核心空间分布及其未来的变化。确定了两个历史核心分布区:孟加拉湾内陆地区和越南中南部。当前的潜在分布包括中国南部、越南、老挝、泰国、缅甸、菲律宾吕宋岛、马来西亚、印度西南部和东北部、斯里兰卡、印度尼西亚(爪哇、苏门答腊)、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、不丹以及喜马拉雅山麓,总面积约3.59×10平方千米。仅剩下一个核心分布区,集中在越南中南部。在未来气候变暖的情况下,该物种的核心分布区、高适宜栖息地甚至整个分布范围都将向北扩展和移动。目前,该物种主要栖息于海拔1200米以下的森林生态系统(最适宜海拔为500米至1200米)。年降水量、最干燥季度的平均温度以及降水季节性是影响该物种分布的重要因素。我们的研究提供了有关栖息地和地理分布的系统信息,这对该物种的保护具有重要意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/c4f3a2284652/biology-11-00868-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/11bcbc11e2ff/biology-11-00868-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/e2d228198747/biology-11-00868-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/221a40c7a483/biology-11-00868-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/e6e67b3220bf/biology-11-00868-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/1ddab1672514/biology-11-00868-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/1546ec125208/biology-11-00868-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/c4f3a2284652/biology-11-00868-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/11bcbc11e2ff/biology-11-00868-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/e2d228198747/biology-11-00868-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/221a40c7a483/biology-11-00868-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/e6e67b3220bf/biology-11-00868-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/1ddab1672514/biology-11-00868-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/1546ec125208/biology-11-00868-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c6ba/9220025/c4f3a2284652/biology-11-00868-g007.jpg

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