Baveja Alok, Kapoor Ajai, Melamed Benjamin
Rutgers Business School-Newark and New Brunswick, Rutgers Global Health Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ USA.
Goldratt Consulting, "Utah Leads Together" Covid-19 Task Force, San Jose, CA USA.
Ann Oper Res. 2020;289(2):173-184. doi: 10.1007/s10479-020-03635-3. Epub 2020 May 14.
A logical strategy to contain the Covid-19 pandemic is to completely isolate everyone for 2 weeks (the incubation period of the virus). However, such a strategy can have prohibitive economic and social costs and, therefore, will be difficult to implement. At the same time, the current situation is leading to an expanding humanitarian, health and economic crisis. Based on principles of the Theory of Constraints, we propose in this article the "Shutting-down Transmission Of Pandemic" (STOP Covid-19) plan that would reliably contain the pandemic, mitigate its economic consequences, and boost societal confidence. This plan requires the implementation of four strategies over 90 days: (a) stop all international, domestic passenger air and intercity bus/train travel; (b) create administrative zones of about 1 million people; (c) stop all non-emergency cross-zonal travel except for transportation of goods, and (d) deploy an information-driven service value chain to control the spread of the pandemic within a zone.
控制新冠疫情的一个合理策略是让所有人完全隔离两周（病毒的潜伏期）。然而，这样的策略会带来高昂的经济和社会成本，因此难以实施。与此同时，当前形势正导致一场不断扩大的人道主义、健康和经济危机。基于约束理论的原则，我们在本文中提出“阻断疫情传播”（STOP Covid - 19）计划，该计划将可靠地控制疫情，减轻其经济后果，并增强社会信心。该计划需要在90天内实施四项策略：（a）停止所有国际、国内客运航空以及城际巴士/火车旅行；（b）创建约100万人的行政区；（c）除货物运输外，停止所有非紧急的跨区域旅行；（d）部署一个信息驱动的服务价值链以控制疫情在一个区域内的传播。
