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油价变化对环境污染的非对称影响:来自十大碳排放国的证据。

The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on environmental pollution: evidence from the top ten carbon emitters.

机构信息

School of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Aug;27(23):29623-29635. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09264-4. Epub 2020 May 22.

Abstract

The basic purpose of this study is to scrutinize the asymmetric effect of oil price changes on environmental pollution in Canada, China, India, Iran, Germany, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the USA. The study uses time series annual data of selected courtiers from 1981 to 2018 and applies non-linear ARDL (NARDL) model to examine the long- and short-run asymmetries. The results show that positive shocks in diesel prices in the USA, India, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Iran, and Canada, while negative shocks in China and India reduce carbon emissions in the long run. However, an increase in gasoline prices in Russia and Iran while the decrease in gasoline prices in the USA, Russia, Japan, and Canada decreases in carbon emissions in the long run. Asymmetric findings also suggest that positive and negative changes in oil prices affect carbon emissions differently in China, the USA, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Canada in the short and long run. However, sign and magnitude of positive and negative shocks of oil prices are more important in environmental economics polices. Therefore, based on sign and magnitude, more taxation of fossil fuel and clean energy subsidies are recommended for the top carbon-emitting economies.

摘要

本研究的基本目的是审视石油价格变化对加拿大、中国、印度、伊朗、德国、日本、俄罗斯、韩国、沙特阿拉伯和美国环境污染的非对称影响。该研究使用了 1981 年至 2018 年期间选定国家的时间序列年度数据,并应用非线性 ARDL(NARDL)模型来检验长期和短期的非对称性。结果表明,美国、印度、日本、德国、韩国、伊朗和加拿大的柴油价格正向冲击,而中国和印度的负向冲击将在长期内减少碳排放。然而,俄罗斯和伊朗的汽油价格上涨,而美国、俄罗斯、日本和加拿大的汽油价格下跌,将在长期内减少碳排放。不对称的发现还表明,石油价格的正向和负向变化在短期和长期内对中国、美国、印度、俄罗斯、日本、德国、韩国、伊朗、沙特阿拉伯和加拿大的碳排放有不同的影响。然而,石油价格的正向和负向冲击的正负号和幅度在环境经济学政策中更为重要。因此,基于正负号和幅度,建议对碳排放最多的经济体征收更多的化石燃料税和清洁能源补贴。

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