College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China.
School of Business Administration, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Sep 10;734:139438. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139438. Epub 2020 May 15.
To mitigate the adverse effects of global climate change, the carbon tax has been gradually recognized as an important economic means to reduce carbon emissions. This paper therefore aimed to investigate the carbon tax pricing for China's thermal power industry and proposed a provincial increasing block carbon tax (IBCT) policy. By designing a forecast-optimized framework with support vector regression (SVR) and data envelopment analysis (DEA), the pricings of IBCT and flat carbon tax (FCT) were calculated. Meanwhile, the effects of both them on emission reduction were compared. The results showed that: (1) China's overall electricity demand will continue to increase in 2020, with southern and northern provinces showing stronger increases than other provinces. (2) The marginal abatement cost of each region was calculated, thus gaining an optimal three-stage form of IBCT. (3) The comparison indicated that the emission reduction efficiency of the IBCT was 23.1% higher than the FCT under the premise of equal emission reduction. The study suggests that IBCT is a more efficient type of carbon tax policy compared to FCT. Implementing IBCT can be conducive to achieving the dual goals of reducing cost burden and carbon emission in China's thermal power industry.
为减轻全球气候变化的不利影响，碳税已逐渐被视为减少碳排放的重要经济手段。因此，本文旨在研究中国火力发电行业的碳税定价，并提出一种省级递增型碳税（IBCT）政策。通过设计一个支持向量回归（SVR）和数据包络分析（DEA）的预测优化框架，计算了 IBCT 和固定碳税（FCT）的定价，并比较了它们对减排的影响。结果表明：（1）2020 年中国整体电力需求将继续增长，南方和北方省份的增长强于其他省份。（2）计算了各地区的边际减排成本，从而获得了最优的三阶段 IBCT 形式。（3）比较表明，在减排量相等的前提下，IBCT 的减排效率比 FCT 高 23.1%。研究表明，与 FCT 相比，IBCT 是一种更有效的碳税政策类型。在中国火力发电行业实施 IBCT 有利于实现降低成本负担和减少碳排放的双重目标。
