College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Jiangjun Avenue, Nanjing, 211106, China; Research Centre for Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Jiangjun Avenue, Nanjing, 211106, China.
School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics (CUFE), Beijing, 102206, China.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Apr 15;284:112055. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112055. Epub 2021 Feb 2.
The rapid development of China's manufacturing industry since China's accession to WTO in 2001 has dramatically increased China's carbon emissions. To inform the carbon policy development of China's manufacturing industry, this study constructed a DEA-GS (data envelopment analysis and grid search) model from a cost perspective to understand the their emission reduction characteristics. Using a large sample of manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2011, the carbon pricing and reduction potential of China's manufacturing firms was explored by analyzing the firms' marginal abatement costs. The results showed that: (a) with increasing marginal abatement costs, the growth rates of both cumulative emission reduction activities and emission reduction of these firms gradually slowed down. When the marginal abatement cost exceeds 200 Yuan/ton, neither the number of reduction activities nor the amount of reduced emissions increase. (b) The impact of marginal abatement costs on the numbers of reduction activities and firms in each sub-sector is heterogeneous. (c) The emission reduction behaviors of manufacturting firms, determined by carbon pricing, are mostly concentrated in developed areas or around large cities. In contrast, areas with substantial emission reductions are more scattered. The results suggest that The emission reduction characteristics of sub-sectors should be fully considered when formulating carbon policies for China's manufacturing industry. The carbon price for the China's manufacturing industry should not exceed 200 Yuan/ton. Furthermore, the carbon policy of China's manufacturing industry should have broader coverage, rather than merely covering developed areas.
自 2001 年中国加入 WTO 以来，中国制造业的快速发展极大地增加了中国的碳排放。为了为中国制造业的碳政策制定提供信息，本研究从成本角度构建了一个 DEA-GS（数据包络分析和网格搜索）模型，以了解其减排特征。利用 2008 年至 2011 年制造业企业的大量样本，通过分析企业的边际减排成本，探讨了中国制造业企业的碳定价和减排潜力。结果表明：（a）随着边际减排成本的增加，累计减排活动和这些企业的减排增长率逐渐放缓。当边际减排成本超过 200 元/吨时，减排活动的数量和减排量都不再增加。（b）边际减排成本对各子行业减排活动数量和企业的影响存在异质性。（c）受碳定价影响，制造业企业的减排行为主要集中在发达地区或大城市周边。相比之下，减排量大的地区则更加分散。研究结果表明，在制定中国制造业的碳政策时，应充分考虑子行业的减排特征。中国制造业的碳价格不应超过 200 元/吨。此外，中国制造业的碳政策应该有更广泛的覆盖范围，而不仅仅是覆盖发达地区。
