School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, 116025, China.
Postdoctoral Research Station, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, 116025, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Aug;25(24):24445-24468. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-2497-x. Epub 2018 Jun 16.
The calculation of marginal abatement costs of CO plays a vital role in meeting China's 2020 emission reduction targets by providing reference for determining carbon tax and carbon trading pricing. However, most existing researches only used one method to discuss regional and industrial marginal abatement costs, and almost no studies predicted future marginal abatement costs from the perspective of CO emission efficiency. To make up for the gaps, this paper first estimates marginal abatement costs of CO in three major industries of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015 based on three assumptions. Second, based on the principle of fairness and efficiency, China's 2020 emission reduction targets are decomposed by province. Based on the ZSG-C-DDF model, the marginal abatement costs of CO in all provinces in China in 2020 are estimated and compared with the marginal abatement costs of 2005 to 2015. The results show that (1) from 2005 to 2015, marginal abatement costs of CO in all provinces show a fluctuating upward trend; (2) compared with the marginal abatement costs of primary industry or tertiary industry, most provinces have lower marginal abatement costs for secondary industry; and (3) the average marginal abatement costs of CO for China in 2020 are 2766.882 Yuan/tonne for the 40% carbon intensity reduction target and 3334.836 Yuan/tonne for the 45% target, showing that the higher the emission reduction target, the higher the marginal abatement costs of CO. (4) Overall, the average marginal abatement costs of CO in China by 2020 are higher than those in 2005-2015. The empirical analysis in this paper can provide multiple references for environmental policy makers.
CO 的边际减排成本计算在实现中国 2020 年减排目标中发挥着重要作用，为确定碳税和碳交易定价提供了参考。然而，大多数现有研究仅使用一种方法来讨论区域和产业的边际减排成本，几乎没有研究从 CO 排放效率的角度预测未来的边际减排成本。为了弥补这些差距，本文首先基于三种假设，估算了中国 30 个省份三大产业 2005 年至 2015 年的 CO 边际减排成本。其次，基于公平和效率原则，对中国各省 2020 年的减排目标进行了分解。基于 ZSG-C-DDF 模型，估算了中国各省 2020 年的 CO 边际减排成本，并与 2005 年至 2015 年的边际减排成本进行了比较。结果表明：（1）2005 年至 2015 年，各省 CO 的边际减排成本呈波动上升趋势；（2）与第一产业或第三产业的边际减排成本相比，大多数省份的第二产业边际减排成本较低；（3）中国 2020 年 CO 的平均边际减排成本为 40%碳强度减排目标下的 2766.882 元/吨和 45%目标下的 3334.836 元/吨，表明减排目标越高，CO 的边际减排成本越高。（4）总体而言，中国 2020 年 CO 的平均边际减排成本高于 2005-2015 年。本文的实证分析可为环境政策制定者提供多种参考。
