Cumulative Social Risk and Cardiovascular Disease Among Adults in South Korea: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of a Nationally Representative Sample.

INTRODUCTION

The Framingham risk score (FRS) is widely used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it neglects to account for social risk factors. Our study examined whether use of a cumulative social risk score in addition to the FRS improves prediction of CVD among South Korean adults.

METHODS

We used nationally representative data on 19,147 adults aged 19 or older from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2016. We computed a cumulative social risk score (range, 0-3) based on 3 social risk factors: low household income, low level of education, and single-living status. CVD outcomes were stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina. Weighted logistic regression examined the associations between cumulative social risk, FRS, and CVD. McFadden pseudo-R and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) assessed model performance. We conducted mediation analyses to quantify the association between cumulative social risk score and CVD outcomes that is not mediated by the FRS.

RESULTS

A unit increase in social risk was associated with 89.4% higher risk of stroke diagnosis, controlling for the FRS (P < .001). The FRS explained 8.0% of stroke diagnosis (R) with fair discrimination (AUC = 0.728), and adding the cumulative social risk score enhanced R and AUC by 2.4% and 0.039. In the association between cumulative social risk and stroke, the proportion not mediated by the FRS was 65% (P < .001). We observed similar trends in myocardial infarction and angina, such that an increase in social risk was associated with increased relative risk of disease and improved disease diagnosis, and a large proportion of the association was not mediated by the FRS.

CONCLUSION

Controlling for the FRS, cumulative social risks predicted stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina among adults in South Korea. Future research is needed to examine non-FRS mediators between cumulative social risk and CVD.