Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA; Division of Mathematical Sciences, National Science Foundation, Alexandria, VA, USA.
National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Math Biosci. 2020 Aug;326:108389. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108389. Epub 2020 May 27.
The many variations on a graphic illustrating the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures to mitigate pandemic influenza that have appeared in recent news reports about COVID-19 suggest a need to better explain the mechanism by which social distancing reduces the spread of infectious diseases. And some reports understate one benefit of reducing the frequency or proximity of interpersonal encounters, a reduction in the total number of infections. In hopes that understanding will increase compliance, we describe how social distancing (a) reduces the peak incidence of infections, (b) delays the occurrence of this peak, and (c) reduces the total number of infections during epidemics. In view of the extraordinary efforts underway to identify existing medications that are active against SARS-CoV-2 and to develop new antiviral drugs, vaccines and antibody therapies, any of which may have community-level effects, we also describe how pharmaceutical interventions affect transmission.
最近有关 COVID-19 的新闻报道中出现了许多图形，说明非药物措施对缓解大流行性流感的影响存在多种变化，这表明有必要更好地解释社交距离如何减少传染病传播的机制。并且，一些报道低估了减少人际接触的频率或接近程度（即减少感染总数）的一个好处。我们希望通过提高认识来增加人们的遵守程度，因此描述了社交距离如何：(a) 降低感染的峰值发生率；(b) 延迟该峰值的出现；以及 (c) 减少流行病期间的总感染人数。鉴于正在进行非凡的努力以确定对抗 SARS-CoV-2 有效的现有药物并开发新的抗病毒药物、疫苗和抗体疗法，其中任何一种都可能具有社区层面的影响，我们还描述了药物干预如何影响传播。
