Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Material Science and Engineering College, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266061, China.
Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Sep 15;735:139404. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139404. Epub 2020 May 13.
Harmful algae bloom (HAB) is a major global ecological hazard and is a serious problem in the Bohai Sea. There have been few successful controls of HABs associated with HAB accurate predictions due to a lack of link between ecological risks and control measures. A methodology is proposed that embeds the compound eutrophication index (CEI) into an ecological risk index (ERI) for HAB prediction, which can define critical factors associated with measures of HAB control. CEI can be calculated by means of a function with 15 control elements. These are multiplied with the occurrence probability and ecosystem vulnerability to HAB events to calculate the ERI of HAB. Based on the results of CEI and ERI, it has experienced eutrophication and has been at a high-risk state since 1989 in the Bohai Sea. There is good correlation between CEI and chlorophyll a concentration, and HAB risk evaluation in accordance with ERI embedded CEI is considerable reliability in both location and time in the Bohai Sea. The ERI value averages 24% ± 35% with peak values (73% ± 4.3%) in summer, and high values (at the level of grade III of ERI, 6%) are mostly in Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, Liaodong Bay and the coastal sea waters of Qinhuangdao city. The contribution of terrigenous pollutant emission and concentration effects to the ERI is 63%, with reclamation and hydrodynamic effects accounting for 22%, and runoff and sediment effects accounting for 15%. Thus, actions associated with terrigenous pollutant emission/concentration would be more effective than other measures in prevention and control of HAB.
有害藻类水华（HAB）是一种主要的全球生态危害，也是渤海面临的严重问题。由于缺乏生态风险与控制措施之间的联系，与 HAB 准确预测相关的 HAB 很少得到成功控制。本研究提出了一种将复合富营养化指数（CEI）嵌入到 HAB 预测生态风险指数（ERI）中的方法，该方法可以定义与 HAB 控制措施相关的关键因素。CEI 可以通过一个具有 15 个控制要素的函数来计算。这些控制要素与 HAB 事件发生的概率和生态系统脆弱性相乘，以计算 HAB 的 ERI。基于 CEI 和 ERI 的结果，渤海自 1989 年以来一直经历着富营养化，处于高风险状态。CEI 与叶绿素 a 浓度之间存在良好的相关性，根据嵌入 CEI 的 ERI 进行 HAB 风险评估在渤海的位置和时间上都具有相当的可靠性。ERI 值平均为 24%±35%，夏季峰值为 73%±4.3%，高值（ERI 等级 III 水平，6%）主要分布在渤海湾、莱州湾、辽东湾和秦皇岛市沿海海域。陆源污染物排放和浓度效应对 ERI 的贡献为 63%，围垦和水动力效应占 22%，径流量和沉积物效应占 15%。因此，与陆源污染物排放/浓度相关的行动在 HAB 的预防和控制方面将比其他措施更有效。
