Methodology for forecast and control of coastal harmful algal blooms by embedding a compound eutrophication index into the ecological risk index.

Harmful algae bloom (HAB) is a major global ecological hazard and is a serious problem in the Bohai Sea. There have been few successful controls of HABs associated with HAB accurate predictions due to a lack of link between ecological risks and control measures. A methodology is proposed that embeds the compound eutrophication index (CEI) into an ecological risk index (ERI) for HAB prediction, which can define critical factors associated with measures of HAB control. CEI can be calculated by means of a function with 15 control elements. These are multiplied with the occurrence probability and ecosystem vulnerability to HAB events to calculate the ERI of HAB. Based on the results of CEI and ERI, it has experienced eutrophication and has been at a high-risk state since 1989 in the Bohai Sea. There is good correlation between CEI and chlorophyll a concentration, and HAB risk evaluation in accordance with ERI embedded CEI is considerable reliability in both location and time in the Bohai Sea. The ERI value averages 24% ± 35% with peak values (73% ± 4.3%) in summer, and high values (at the level of grade III of ERI, 6%) are mostly in Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, Liaodong Bay and the coastal sea waters of Qinhuangdao city. The contribution of terrigenous pollutant emission and concentration effects to the ERI is 63%, with reclamation and hydrodynamic effects accounting for 22%, and runoff and sediment effects accounting for 15%. Thus, actions associated with terrigenous pollutant emission/concentration would be more effective than other measures in prevention and control of HAB.