Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China.
China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center, Beijing, 100029, China.
Environ Res. 2020 Aug;187:109689. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109689. Epub 2020 May 20.
The construction of nuclear power plants in China has proceeded rapidly in recent years, and a nuclear power plant cluster is present in the coastal area of Fujian Province. Considering the lessons of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, we applied the Monte Carlo approach to calculate the correlation characteristics of earthquake impacts on the nuclear power plant cluster and to assess the seismic hazards at multiple sites. Based on the seismic source zone model, seismicity model and ground-motion prediction model of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China, many earthquake scenarios were sampled, and the possibility of multiple sites experiencing ground motions that exceed critical values at the same time were obtained. The results show that the correlation between nuclear power plants Fuqing (C) and Putian (D) is the largest and that they have a slight probability of exceeding their respective design criteria at the same time. The correlation of earthquake impacts on nuclear power plants Ningde (A) and Xiapu (B) is also high, but the probability that they simultaneously exceed their respective design criteria is very low. This study can provide a reference for the site selection of nuclear power plants.
近年来，中国的核电站建设迅速推进，福建省沿海地区形成了核电站群。考虑到福岛第一核电站事故的教训，我们应用蒙特卡罗方法来计算地震对核电站群的影响的相关性特征，并评估多个站点的地震灾害。基于地震动参数分区图的震源区模型、地震活动性模型和地震动预测模型，我们对许多地震场景进行了抽样，获得了多个站点同时经历超过临界值的地震动的可能性。结果表明，福清（C）和莆田（D）核电站之间的相关性最大，它们同时超过各自设计标准的可能性较小。宁德（A）和霞浦（B）核电站的地震影响相关性也很高，但它们同时超过各自设计标准的概率非常低。本研究可为核电站选址提供参考。
