School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, 210098 Nanjing, China.
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Sep 15;735:139562. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139562. Epub 2020 May 21.
The severe shrinkage of Aral Sea and water resources coordination issues in upstream and downstream regions lead to the serious ecological crisis in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB). Comprehensive ecological carrying capacity (ECC) assessment is of great significance for the ecological restoration and sustainable development. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Experts Mark, this paper established the index evaluation system according to the specific ecological situation of the ASB. Combining remote sensing (RS) data and geographic information systems (GIS) technology, the paper assessed the ECC from 2001 to 2018 and explained the variations of the ECC by various data. The results indicate that the ECC is getting better in eighteen years. In 2009, the ECC condition is the best. ECC of the upstream region is better than that of the downstream region. The cause analysis that highlights the precipitation and enforcement of ecological policy has a positive impact on the ECC change. And the disparity of water body in upstream and downstream watercourses contributes to the regional difference of ECC. The paper provides an evaluation system of the ECC in the ASB. The analysis of the ECC variations is instructive to the sustainable development and ecological restoration in the ASB and other similar areas.
咸海的严重萎缩和上下游地区水资源协调问题导致咸海流域（ASB）发生严重生态危机。综合生态承载能力（ECC）评估对生态恢复和可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于层次分析法（AHP）和专家打分法，根据 ASB 的具体生态情况建立了指标评价体系。结合遥感（RS）数据和地理信息系统（GIS）技术，评估了 2001 年至 2018 年的 ECC，并通过各种数据解释了 ECC 的变化。结果表明，十八年来 ECC 状况正在好转。2009 年 ECC 状况最佳。上游地区的 ECC 优于下游地区。突出降水和生态政策实施对 ECC 变化产生积极影响的原因分析，以及上下游河道水体的差异导致 ECC 的区域差异。本文提供了 ASB 地区 ECC 的评价体系。对 ECC 变化的分析对 ASB 及其他类似地区的可持续发展和生态恢复具有指导意义。
