Zhang Gan, Murakami Hiroyuki, Knutson Thomas R, Mizuta Ryo, Yoshida Kohei
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Sci Adv. 2020 Apr 22;6(17):eaaz7610. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610. eCollection 2020 Apr.
The locally accumulated damage by tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify substantially when these cyclones move more slowly. While some observational evidence suggests that TC motion might have slowed significantly since the mid-20th century (), the robustness of the observed trend and its relation to anthropogenic warming have not been firmly established (-). Using large-ensemble simulations that directly simulate TC activity, we show that future anthropogenic warming can lead to a robust slowing of TC motion, particularly in the midlatitudes. The slowdown there is related to a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, which has been projected by various climate models. Although the model's simulation of historical TC motion trends suggests that the attribution of the observed trends of TC motion to anthropogenic forcings remains uncertain, our findings suggest that 21st-century anthropogenic warming could decelerate TC motion near populated midlatitude regions in Asia and North America, potentially compounding future TC-related damages.
当热带气旋移动速度较慢时，其在局部地区造成的累积破坏会显著加剧。虽然一些观测证据表明自20世纪中叶以来热带气旋的移动速度可能已大幅减慢（），但观测趋势的稳健性及其与人为变暖的关系尚未得到确凿证实（-）。通过直接模拟热带气旋活动的大规模集合模拟，我们发现未来的人为变暖会导致热带气旋移动速度显著减慢，尤其是在中纬度地区。中纬度地区的这种减速与中纬度西风带向极地的移动有关，这已被各种气候模型预测到。尽管该模型对历史热带气旋移动趋势的模拟表明，将观测到的热带气旋移动趋势归因于人为强迫仍不确定，但我们的研究结果表明，21世纪的人为变暖可能会使亚洲和北美人口密集的中纬度地区附近的热带气旋移动速度减慢，这可能会加剧未来与热带气旋相关的破坏。
