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气候变化。北半球中纬度地区夏季环流减弱。

Climate change. The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

机构信息

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth System Analysis, 14412 Potsdam, Germany. University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.

出版信息

Science. 2015 Apr 17;348(6232):324-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1261768. Epub 2015 Mar 12.

Abstract

Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter, but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (i) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in the poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE, and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.

摘要

北极地区的快速升温可能会通过减少极地温度梯度来影响中纬度环流。通常预计最大的变化将发生在秋季或冬季,但是否发生了重大变化仍存在争议。在这里,我们报告了在三个关键动力学量中检测到的夏季环流的显著减弱:(i)纬向平均纬向风,(ii)涡动能(EKE),以及(iii)快速移动的罗斯贝波的幅度。纬向风的减弱可以通过极地温度梯度的减小来解释。罗斯贝波和 EKE 的变化与气候模型预测和季节性周期变化的回归分析一致。每月的极端高温与低 EKE 有关,因此观测到的减弱可能导致最近夏季更持久的热浪。

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