Department of Mathematics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, DHA Lahore, Pakistan.
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Gulf University for Science & Technology, Mishref, Kuwait.
J Biol Dyn. 2020 Dec;14(1):389-408. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1773000.
We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). We have included asymptomatic, quarantine and isolation compartments in the model, as studies have stressed upon the importance of these population groups on the transmission of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. Using sensitivity analysis we establish that [Formula: see text] is most sensitive to the rate of quarantine and isolation and that a high level of quarantine needs to be maintained as well as isolation to control the disease. Based on this we devise optimal quarantine and isolation strategies, noting that high levels need to be maintained during the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from the Wuhan outbreak, which has nearly run its course we estimate that [Formula: see text] which while in agreement with other estimates in the literature is on the lower side.
我们构建了一个用于描述新冠病毒疾病（COVID-19）传播的确定性传染病模型。我们在模型中加入了无症状、隔离和检疫人群，因为研究强调了这些人群对疾病传播的重要性。我们计算了基本再生数[Formula: see text]，结果表明当[Formula: see text]时疾病会消失，当[Formula: see text]时疾病会流行。通过敏感性分析，我们确定[Formula: see text]对隔离和检疫的速度最敏感，需要保持高水平的隔离和检疫以控制疾病。基于此，我们设计了最优的隔离和检疫策略，注意到在疫情爆发的早期阶段需要保持高水平。使用来自武汉疫情的数据，我们估计[Formula: see text]，这与文献中的其他估计值一致，但处于较低水平。
